Republican John Sununu and Democrat Chris Pappas won their respective primaries on Tuesday, setting up a New Hampshire Senate contest that recent polling shows could be close. The has called the Democratic primary for Pappas, with an estimated 89 percent of the vote counted, and the Republican primary for Sununu, with an estimated 85 percent counted. On November 3, New Hampshire voters are set to choose a successor to retiring three-term Democratic Senator Jeanne Shaheen, and the open seat could influence control of the U.S.
The RealClearPolling average puts Pappas 2 points ahead of Sununu in the general election, while prediction markets Kalshi and Polymarket price a Democratic victory at 83 percent. Though forecasters currently give Democrats the advantage, New Hampshire's political history offers encouragement to both nominees. Republicans have not won one of the state's Senate seats since 2010, but Granite State voters remain willing to split their tickets: In 2024, they elected a Republican governor while backing then-Vice President Kamala Harris in the presidential race.
Newsweek contacted the Sununu and Pappas campaigns by email for comment on Wednesday morning. Republicans see Sununu—who previously held the seat, has one of the state's best-known political names and received President Donald Trump's endorsement—as a chance to break the GOP's losing streak in New Hampshire Senate elections. Democrats counter that the state has resisted Trump in presidential contests and that the broader political environment favors Pappas.
A University of New Hampshire Survey Center poll conducted August 20 to 24 among 1,878 likely voters put Sununu at 45 percent and Pappas at 43 percent. Its margin of error was plus or minus 2.3 percentage points, meaning the Republican's lead was within the survey's sampling error. Another survey taken almost simultaneously pointed the other way.
Saint Anselm College polled 1,411 likely voters online from August 17 to 18 and found Pappas ahead 48 percent to 41 percent. That poll had a margin of error of plus or minus 2.6 percentage points. An earlier Emerson College Polling survey, conducted March 21 to 23 among 1,000 likely voters, found a virtual tie: 45 percent for Pappas and 44 percent for Sununu, with a margin of error of plus or minus 2.9 percentage points.
Taken together, the results suggest Sununu has a plausible path but no durable lead. The RealClearPolling average covering March 21 through August 24 placed Pappas at 45.3 percent and Sununu at 43.3 percent, a Democratic edge of 2 points. The electorate also contains sharp demographic crosscurrents, with Emerson College Polling Executive Director Spencer Kimball saying in a news release that women favored Pappas by 9 points and men backed Sununu by 6.
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