Senator Susan Collins is facing a new economic headwind in her reelection bid as home heating oil prices surge to a record high ahead of the 2026 midterm elections. Rising fuel prices have emerged as a key vulnerability for Republicans nationwide as they defend their majorities in both the House of Representatives and Senate, with only about 5 weeks until the midterms. Rising costs are attributed to disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, a key passageway for global oil, amid the Iran war.
Collins faces a unique challenge in Maine, the state most reliant on home heating oil. More than 50 percent of Maine residents use oil as their primary heat source, according to the Northeast Gas Association, and prices have steadily increased as winter approaches, adding pressure to Mainers’ finances as they weigh whether to elect Collins to another term. Home heating prices averaged $6.02 per gallon statewide last week, according to the Maine Department of Energy Resources (DOER).
That marks an increase from $3.33 per gallon one year earlier, and more conservative, rural parts of the state are facing especially high costs. The previous high was recorded in May 2022, when prices hit $5.92 per gallon as the nation grappled with a post-pandemic inflation wave. Heating costs are “always front of mind in Maine,” even in the “middle of the summer,” Mark Brewer, a professor of political science at the University of Maine in Orono, told Newsweek.
It’s definitely a huge concern, even in years where fuel costs aren’t high. When they reach the point where they are right now, and they’re projected to go even higher, it’s definitely going to be a big issue,” he said. Rising home heating prices threaten to complicate Collins’ reelection.
She already faces a toss-up race against Democrat Troy Jackson, the former Maine Senate president, and affordability remains a central concern for voters both in Maine and across the country. The Iran war has not been popular in the polls. Trump’s approval rating has fallen after launching strikes against Tehran in February, as voters blame him for rising costs caused by the war.
If voters blame Trump for rising home heating prices, Collins “is going to get some of that” heat, Brewer said. Costs in Northern and Central Maine, which are the state’s more conservative regions, are even higher, averaging $6.05 and $6.09 per gallon, respectively. Jackson is not going to win those regions, but he could chip away at Collins’ margins there by focusing on heating prices, Brewer said.
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