Surveys show that Maine Senator Susan Collins is making headway with female voters weeks out from the midterms, though the topic of abortion appears set to present a challenge for the five-term Republican. Though her opponent, Democrat Troy Jackson, still leads among women, polls since Graham Platner left the race show Collins gaining momentum with female Mainers. According to a September 17 to September 21 survey from the University of New Hampshire, published last week, women are siding with Jackson 51 percent to 47 percent.
Overall, Collins' current standing with this group is 40 percent favorable, 50 percent unfavorable and 10 percent neutral. This marks an improvement from July, when the same pollster found that 41 percent of women intended to vote for Collins, compared with Jackson’s 54 percent. The July 15 to July 20 poll, conducted before Jackson became the official nominee, also showed Collins with an even weaker popularity profile: only 34 percent of women viewed her favorably, compared with 52 percent unfavorably, 13 percent neutrally and 1 percent unsure about the senator.
Newsweek contacted the Collins and Jackson campaigns for comment. While Democrats appear to hold a significant advantage in the House, election forecasters like RacetotheWH show a closer competition for the Senate. But the party would only need to flip a few Republican seats to gain control of the upper chamber for the second half of President Donald Trump’s term, putting close races like Maine in particular focus.
Collins' success has also been viewed as a bellwether of broader national trends. She has crafted a reputation as one of the Republican Party's more moderate and bipartisan voices. Whether this status can overcome contemporary frustration with the Trump administration and a challenge from a progressive Democrat could reflect the forces that decide the wider balance of Congress come November.
Despite her improved standing with women, some have noted that her vote to confirm Supreme Court Justice Brett Kavanaugh—a decision which contributed to the landmark Roe v. Wade decision being reversed—could upset this trend. This year’s election will be Collins’ first since the 2022 ruling, and signs have already emerged that it could become a key attack line for her opponents.
During an interview last week, Collins said she did not regret her vote to confirm Kavanaugh, despite having said at the time she was confident the now-justice would not vote to overturn Roe. According to town hall remarks quoted by MS Now, Jackson said that Collins' remark “says everything to me because I sure as hell do, and everybody else in this state and everybody else in this country does.” Planned Parenthood had in the past honored Collins as one of the “Republican lawmakers who champion reproductive health care issues and who fight to ensure the rights granted to women.” However, the organization announced in August that its super PAC, Planned Parenthood Votes, would be spending “over $600,000” on an ad campaign highlighting “Maine voters' disapproval of Sen. Susan Collins’s anti-abortion votes, including her vote to confirm Brett Kavanaugh.” Jackson, meanwhile, was opposed to abortion access early in his career, but has since 2017 enjoyed a 100 percent rating from the Planned Parenthood Maine Action Fund and secured backing from other pro-choice groups like Reproductive Freedom for All.
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