Democrat James Talarico held a 4-point lead over Republican Ken Paxton in a new AARP poll of the Texas Senate race, conducted in part by President Donald Trump’s go-to pollster. The new poll published Thursday showed state Representative Talarico with 48 percent support and state Attorney General Ken Paxton with 44 percent in the Lone Star State. Fabrizio Ward, led by Trump pollster Tony Fabrizio, and Democratic polling firm Impact Research conducted it.
Fabrizio served as Trump's pollster during his presidential campaigns. It comes as Republicans have descended on Dallas for the party’s unprecedented midterm convention this week. The convention is part of a plan to mobilize the GOP base ahead of the midterms to avert losses in key races, as polls show many Americans have soured on the Trump administration amid growing frustration with inflation, the economy and the war in Iran.
Trump offered praise for Paxton during a press conference on Thursday. I'm not sure if I like the way you dress. I don't like the way you talk.
But you're the greatest attorney general, so therefore, that’s the only thing that matters,” he said. The poll also suggested Paxton still had work to do to consolidate the base—he received 83 percent support among Republicans, compared to Talarico’s 94 percent support among Democrats. The Democratic candidate also received 9 percent support from Republicans, while Paxton’s support among Democrats stood at only 2 percent, according to the poll.
Talarico’s net favorability stood at +7 points, 42 percent viewing him favorably and 35 percent unfavorably, while Paxton’s stood at -11 points. Forty-six percent viewed Paxton unfavorably, while 35 percent viewed him favorably. The poll surveyed 895 likely voters from August 30 to September 1, 2026, and had a margin of error of plus or minus 3.3 percentage points.
A flurry of recent polls have shown Talarico either tied with or leading Paxton in Texas. Here is a look at what the latest polls showed. Prediction markets pointed to a close race.
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