Republican Senator Ted Cruz has predicted that Democratic Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez of New York could become her party's presidential nominee in 2028, warning the GOP not to assume she would lose in a general election. The Texas senator made the comments while discussing the Michigan Senate race involving Democrat Abdul El-Sayed, arguing that an El-Sayed victory over Republican Mike Rogers would undermine one of the central arguments likely to be made against Ocasio-Cortez in a presidential primary—that she is too progressive to win nationally. The Michigan contest is among the most closely watched Senate races of the midterms, pitting El-Sayed, a progressive, against the former House lawmaker Rogers in a state that has emerged as a key presidential battleground.
The midterms outcome could also factor into the broader debate over whether progressive Democrats can win statewide in other competitive states. Cruz argued that an El-Sayed victory in Michigan could be cited as evidence that voters would back a similarly progressive candidate nationally. He also cautioned Republicans against assuming an Ocasio-Cortez nomination would guarantee a GOP victory.
Newsweek has reached out to Ocasio-Cortez's office via email on Wednesday afternoon for comment. Prediction markets currently place Ocasio-Cortez among the leading contenders for the 2028 presidential election. An average of Polymarket, Kalshi, and PredictIt prices gave Republican Vice President JD Vance an 18.7 percent implied chance of winning the presidency, followed by Ocasio-Cortez at 11.8 percent, California Democratic Governor Gavin Newsom at 10.9 percent, Georgia Democratic Senator Jon Ossoff at 9.6 percent, and Secretary of State Marco Rubio, a Republican, at 9.5 percent.
Early primary polling, however, presents a more divided picture. While Ocasio-Cortez remains part of a crowded prospective Democratic field, Vance has emerged as an early Republican front-runner, leading a recent New York Times/Siena survey with 33 percent support among GOP voters—10 points ahead of Rubio. Cruz has also entered the 2028 conversation, though odds comparison and polling aggregators reflect a steeper climb.
Oddschecker gives Cruz about a 2 percent implied chance of securing the Republican nomination, while the latest RealClearPolling primary average places his support at 2.8 percent. Although Cruz noted in August that "it's no secret that I want to be president," he has not formally announced a 2028 campaign. Cruz also escalated his criticism of El-Sayed, saying the Michigan Democrat could pose a national security risk if he is elected to the Senate and subsequently appointed to the Intelligence Committee.
El-Sayed has denied having ties to the Muslim Brotherhood. Some governments have designated the organization or particular branches as terrorist groups. In an interview with NBC that aired October 15, he rejected allegations about both himself and his family.
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