Will the first victim of the political conference season be the Liberal Democrats’ Sir Ed Davey? It might seem quixotic, given that he is the most successful liberal parliamentary leader in a century. Yet a meeting of Lib Dem MPs on Tuesday night could see them collect the 18 signatures needed for a confidence vote.
It’s hard to see what a putsch would achieve, apart from giving the party’s opponents a stick to beat it with. That may be the point: weakening Sir Ed in an internal war of attrition so that he walks away would be easier than removing him via a no-confidence vote passed by a majority of all Lib Dem MPs. With populists slipping in the polls, Lib Dem plotters should remember this, especially as Kemi Badenoch’s Conservatives are looking to advance at the Lib Dems’ expense.
The Tory economic pitch is to end the 60% marginal tax rate on earnings between £100,000 and £125,000, and let couples pass on the family home plus another £1m tax-free. It’s a clear bid to win back affluent southern voters in England’s “yellow wall”. In the face of such an offensive, Sir Ed’s £17bn tax giveaway looks like a pre-emptive strike aimed at disillusioned Tory voters.
His strategy has its detractors. Discontent has moved over the past year from private complaints to public criticism from council leaders, and frontbench resignations last week. At the heart of the row is how the Lib Dems turn their MPs into a more potent force.
Sir Ed wants to expand from the party’s geographic base, mobilise tactical voters and firmly establish the Lib Dems in seats they can win as the best bet to stop a rightwing government headed by Reform UK. His opponents argue that parliamentary heft counts for little if voters barely notice it. Critics point to polling saying that Lib Dems don’t “own” any one issue.
It’s true that the Lib Dem leader has trained his fire on the Tories and Reform, not Labour. Sir Ed’s team pointedly argue that a more populist strategy would be as exhilarating as a plane in a nosedive. Just ask the Greens: no one knows if their pilot will be able to pull out before hitting the ground.
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