On the eve of a midterm election that ended in an unequivocal rejection of his brand of politics, even Donald Trump seemed to recognize that the US-Israel relationship had become a political liability. Trump’s 11th-hour suggestion, on election morning, that he would cut military aid to Israel at the end of the year because, as he put it, “they don’t need it”, was condemned across the board – with pro-Palestinian advocates dismissing it as “desperate” and pro-Israel ones as “unserious”. Trump’s suggestion that he would replace nearly $4bn in annual military aid with arms sales signaled little would change in practice – the funding would continue and it would be harder to track.
But it was still a notable recognition by the president of just how much support for Israel has tanked against the backdrop of the latest war in Gaza, which has killed more than 70,000 Palestinians, been widely been described as a genocide, and reshaped US politics in ways unthinkable just three years ago. Indeed, come January, the US House will include an army doctor who went on a medical mission in Gaza, a lawyer who was fired by her firm over a blogpost criticizing Israel’s war, a Jewish lawmaker who was recently detained by Israeli forces while helping Palestinians harvest olives in the occupied West Bank, and a community organizer who participated in a pro-Palestine student encampment and scored one of the primary season’s most stunning upsets under the banner “babies, not bombs”. Pro-Palestinian candidates – including Palestinian-American ones – have won downballot races.
And in Michigan, Abdul El-Sayed became the first Muslim to be elected to the US Senate, following a campaign that saw more than $40m spent by Aipac in an effort to defeat him, last-minute drama, and unprecedented levels of Islamophobic rhetoric and bigotry. Without that consensus in place, the next Congress could push a number of measures, from an arms embargo on Israel to sanctions against violent settlers and officials – though Trump would retain veto power to block them. The vote was also a rejection of Trump’s war in Iran – something even JD Vance said on Wednesday was “obvious to almost everyone”.
Foreign policy issues rarely determine US elections – that is, until those issues have a direct effect on Americans’ lives at home. Last month, Aipac acknowledged its open support was hurting pro-Israel candidates more than it helped them, and announced it would stop making direct endorsements and contributions – a remarkable admission even if one with little practical consequence. The victories of El-Sayed and several other candidates whom the right sought to cast as antisemitic over their support for Palestinians also marked a significant rejection of the narrative that pro-Israel voices and the Trump administration have relentlessly advanced over the last three years – that criticism of Israel is, by default, antisemitic.
Despite warnings that Jews would leave the Democratic party en masse over its shifts on Israel, J Street said its polling found that 72% of Jews voted for Democrats on Tuesday, even though the Republican party increased its share of the Jewish vote since 2024.. This does not mean that the Democratic party is unified on Israel and Palestine and or in opposition to foreign wars. For decades, the party has “excluded or marginalized anyone whose progressive values extend to support for Palestine”, Lara Friedman, the president of the Foundation for Middle East Peace, said.
Will they finally realize that Americans are tired of war and want a new foreign policy?”
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