There is a lot of excitement around James Talarico’s chances of turning Texas blue this year, facing, as he does, a Republican candidate for the U.S. Senate with a, to put it charitably, checkered history. And you can see why "Blexas" is whispered excitedly on the lips of Democrats, egged on by media coverage emphasizing his chances in the midterms.
The devoutly Christian Democrat leads Ken Paxton 42 percent to 39 percent in the University of Texas/Texas Politics Project poll fielded August 5-13. It would be a bloody nose for President Donald Trump, who is firmly behind Paxton as MAGA’s choice for Texas. Yet the same registered-voter sample favors Republicans 48 percent to 44 percent on the generic U.S.
House ballot—a seven-point difference between the Senate and congressional margins. It suggests Paxton’s clearest path to replacing the incumbent Senator John Cornyn runs through Republican consolidation rather than broad personal rehabilitation of a man whose career is pockmarked by scandal and controversy. The new spending by Trump’s political operation is an immediate test of that.
MAGA Inc. committed $10 million to the race on September 5, split evenly between advertising supporting Paxton and opposing Talarico, after Paxton had been heavily outspent through the summer. The numbers beneath UT’s topline are revealing: 91 percent of Democrats back Talarico, while 79 percent of Republicans back Paxton—down from 84 percent in June. Talarico leads independents 37 percent to 11 percent, although 43 percent of independents still express no preference.
The named Senate ballot leaves 14 percent with no preference; the generic congressional ballot accounts for 94 percent. Reluctant Republicans park in "no preference" when Paxton’s name is attached and choose a party when it is not. Meanwhile, the state’s Governor Greg Abbott holds 86 percent of Republicans in the governor’s trial ballot, seven points more than Paxton—on the same electorate the same nights.
Republicans also lead every other statewide trial ballot tested, from lieutenant governor down to comptroller. So this implies a narrower conclusion about what is happening in Texas than a statewide Democratic shift, one that is opting to get behind a Christian pastor who sings progressive praises over a 'red in tooth and claw' Republican with a sullied past. This is also not Paxton’s first rodeo with a skeptical Republican electorate.
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