We're still early in the season, and there has been a surprising lack of upsets so far, and I don't just mean the big ones that nobody saw coming. On the season, underdogs are 25-132 in games between FBS opponents. That's a win percentage of only .159, which trails way behind recent seasons.
As you can see in the table below, last year underdogs won at a .265 clip. While that table only goes back to 2021, I have data dating back to the 2014 season, the beginning of the College Football Playoff era. From 2014 through 2025, underdogs had a win percentage of .261 overall.
Only once did they finish any season with a win percentage worse than .249. It was the 2015 season when the dogs went 165-600 for a win percentage of .216. And these results don't seem to be due to much larger spreads earlier in the season, given all the nonconference games.
If we limit the data to games that featured a spread of 7.5 points or less, underdogs are 20-39 for a win percentage of .339. From 2014 to 2025, the win percentage in such games was .393. The only season that finished with a worse percentage was, you guessed it, the 2015 season at .327.
It's possible that we're still early in the season, and the small sample size is skewing the results. Maybe we're due for a generational run of underdogs winning outright from here on out. Or maybe there's something to be said about the top of the sport pulling away from the bottom, even if things have flattened a bit at the top.
Or maybe, like 2015, this will prove to be an outlier of a season. I don't know, but considering I include an "Upset of the Week" pick in this column, and I'm coming off a 1-5 week, I'd really appreciate it if some of these underdogs would start pulling their weight and help me dig out of the hole I've dug myself. Another week, another big game for Ole Miss, which has knocked off two ranked teams in Louisville and LSU already.
Extract — continue reading at the source.
