Teams rarely perform at the same level for an entire season. Even when they continue to win or lose, the performances might improve or wane a bit. It's yet another thing that can make handicapping games every week a bit more difficult.
The sample size we have to work with is always small, and it's constantly changing. As the season moves along, we can also see how the market has reacted to what's gone on, and perhaps which teams it's overreacted to. One fun way to do this is to see how teams performed over the first month of the season compared to the last.
Here's a look at the 10 teams who saw their average cover margin (how much they were beating the spread, or losing to it, by) take the biggest dip from the end of September through this week. It shouldn't be a shock to see Mississippi State here. The Bulldogs got off to a hot start to the season thanks to Kamario Taylor, and the market reacted.
But then so did their opponents, and when you throw in an injury to Taylor, things have spiraled quickly. Florida is another team that got off to a hot start and then quickly cooled, and who could forget the UMass Minutemen opening the season with an upset of Rutgers? What might be the most interesting, though, is seeing Georgia on the list.
They've kept winning for the most part, but their overall performances have not matched expectations. Whether it's something to be concerned about, or just a midseason lull, remains to be seen, but it's certainly worth noting. Something else worth noting?
Two of the 10 teams on that list play this weekend, and that's the game we're starting The Six Pack with. No. 17 Florida: So which one of these two October underperformers do we trust the most right now? In truth, I trust Georgia more, so of course I'm taking Florida's side in this one.
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