The Minnesota Vikings are 6-0, the last unbeaten team in the NFL, and they're doing it with a club in one hand and a catapult in the other. Their offense is stuck in the Stone Age, with only 10 touchdowns, the fewest by any 6-0 team since the 1934 Lions (who threw 46 passes all season). Their defense and special teams, meanwhile, are the best in football.
In terms of expected points added (EPA) per play, no team this century is more lopsided when measuring the dropoff from their defense/special teams (0.208) to offense (-0.148) (gap of 0.356). There's still a lot of season to be played, but I set out to answer two questions. To answer the first question, I scoured the archives (862 teams, every season since 2000) and uncovered the top 13 similar metrics in terms of defense/special teams-to-offense dropoff by teams that actually made that medieval formula work (won at least 70% of games in the regular season).
So what happens to great teams weighed down by a bad offense? Let's find out. (measured by largest per play dropoff — from defense/special teams to offense — for teams that won 70% of games since 2000) 6-0 record: defense 1st | special teams 1st | offense 31st The popular opinion says these Vikings are frauds. They went one-and-done in the playoffs after 13+ win seasons in 2022 and 2024 with similar QBs we really didn't trust (Kirk Cousins and Sam Darnold).
So history is just repeating itself, right? The defense and special teams are on another level. They have the fifth-best per play allowed (0.20) by any team this century behind the 2019 Patriots, 2000 Ravens, 2020 Rams and 2002 Buccaneers.
Two of those teams won Super Bowls (2000 Ravens, 2002 Buccaneers). This is also the best special teams we've seen this century (0.24 per play). Myles Price leads the NFL in total return yards (802), kickoff return average (30.7, min. 15 returns) and punt return average (19.2, min. 5 returns) 86-YARD PUNT RETURN TD FOR MYLES PRICE 🗣️@MINvsTB on FOX/FOX OneStream on @NFLPlus pic.twitter.com/vdl5VNla6q Will Reichard, who was a first-team All-Pro last year, has made 18-of-19 field goals this season and recently broke Gary Anderson's franchise record for consecutive field goals made (36).
So don't sleep on the special teams, which puts them over the top in a league where the margins are razor-thin (just ask the Rams). The offense is bad, as mentioned (second-worst per play, better than only the Chargers), but it's not a generational outlier like the defense and special teams have been so far. As you're about to find out, this formula, if maintained, could actually make Minnesota quite dangerous. 12-4 record: defense 1st | special teams 2nd | offense 24th (won Super Bowl) If you're a Vikings fan, you love to see the 2000 Baltimore Ravens next on this list.
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