BRIGHTON, England — The Liberal Democrats want to defeat Nigel Farage — just don’t mention working with Labour to do it. The third-largest party in Westminster has made opposing Reform UK central to its annual conference by the English coast this week. Yet what that actually might entail has been conspicuously absent from the discussion in Brighton.
Neither Andy Burnham’s ruling Labour Party or Farage’s right-wing force — currently a close first and second in opinion polls — is on course to win a majority at the next general election, due by August 2029. It means both could be looking for a coalition partner. Lib Dem leader Ed Davey — who addresses the party faithful Tuesday — told ITV News on Monday he believes there is likely to be a hung parliament next time around.
And he has already talked up the threat of a right-wing pact, warning that Farage and Conservative boss Kemi Badenoch could turn Britain into a “Trump-satellite state” — despite both of their repeated protestations that this isn’t on the cards. An “orange wall” of Lib Dem MPs “will not let [Farage and Badenoch] pass,” Davey has said. The subtext is that the Lib Dems will do whatever it takes to keep Reform’s hands off power — and in the U.K.’s first-past-the-post electoral system, that would most likely mean propping up a minority Labour administration.
At least five other Lib Dems MPs POLITICO spoke with were also reluctant to discuss the prospect of a coalition with Labour. And while the Lib Dems are keen to show they would like to be in government again, it seems they would rather leave the realities of how they get there below the radar for now. Mention of a coalition often sparks fear into the heart of a Lib Dem because of how the last one ended.
Though many Lib Dems will defend that government’s record, the 2015 thrashing means MPs would be cautious about jumping into a coalition again. The party faced a huge backlash over its U-turn on increasing tuition fees, and its support for massive government spending cuts. Lib Dems are aware they would have to consider the compromises their activists — as well as voters — would accept as a price for power.
A fifth MP called for the party to have three really clear policies identifiable in their manifesto that would serve as “red lines” going into any negotiations, warning “otherwise we go in with a weak hand.” One alternative — if Labour fell short of an overall majority — would be for the Lib Dems to enter a confidence and supply arrangement, where they would remain outside government, but influence government policy in return for supporting the government in budgets and votes of confidence. MPs believe there is peril for the party in being seen to be preparing for Labour tie-up — particularly when many of their voters used to be Conservatives. In 2024, the Lib Dems made gains in rural constituencies where former Conservative voters wanted to see the back of a Tory government they had once supported — and the party continues to target Conservatives voters disillusioned by Badenoch’s shift to the right.
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