When Kemi Badenoch arrived for her first Conservative conference as leader last year, a member of her entourage overheard somebody wonder aloud: "Who's that?" This baffled member of the public was actually working at the Conservative conference. Badenoch had been the party's leader and the leader of the opposition for almost a year. It is an anecdote which underlines the scale of the challenge Badenoch faced at that conference, an event her allies are now with distance willing to acknowledge was make or break for her leadership.
And it is an anecdote which also underlines that, far from break her, that conference represented the start of a major turnaround for Badenoch. Twelve months on, Badenoch will arrive in Birmingham this weekend in total command of a party whose leading lights are beginning to permit themselves the occasional flicker of optimism after years of misery preparing for, and then experiencing, a brutal election defeat. Yet for all that Conservatives now believe their leader is an electoral asset, they still face an existential threat from Reform UK and the challenge of how to adjust their strategy to face a new prime minister, Andy Burnham.
The answer to both those issues for Badenoch is a focus on the economy. "Stronger economy, stronger country" will be the party's conference slogan, with the two speeches Badenoch gives - one on Sunday, the other on Wednesday - building on announcements she has made in the past two weeks about cutting benefits for the long-term unemployed. Welfare spending is increasingly seen by the Conservatives as a core battleground with Labour.
During Labour conference they derided the event as the "Welfare Party Conference". Whereas Sir Keir Starmer sought to cut welfare spending before backing down in the face of a rebellion by his own MPs, Burnham has made clear that he believes the way to reduce the benefits bill in the long-term is more up-front investment in support for those out of work. This is a clear ideological difference which both parties are happy to embrace.
Conservative strategists believe there is a broader lesson there. "The differences between the parties have been quite muddled for a while," one says. "Now that Burnham is prime minister we have a more traditional left-right split." Another area where Badenoch will embrace that divide in the coming days is the pensions triple-lock.
The policy currently guarantees the state pension goes up each year in line with either inflation, wage increases, or 2.5% – whichever is the highest. Badenoch will make clear that the Conservatives continue to support that policy in its current form, breaking with some generally supportive think tanks and policy experts who believe Badenoch should follow Burnham's lead. In his conference speech on Tuesday, Burnham set out plans to end the existing triple lock from 2030, so the state pension increases at least by inflation or 2.5% - but remove the automatic annual link with average earnings.
Extract — continue reading at the source.
