The forthcoming Conservative conference will be, almost everyone in the party agrees, notably more upbeat and unified than last year. There is a similar consensus that Kemi Badenoch is doing well as party leader. That is, however, not the whole story.
That means the mood is overhyped.” This is the inescapable shadow over the Tory gathering in Birmingham, which begins on Sunday. Almost two years since Badenoch was elected leader, her party is still polling lower than it did in 2024, when it suffered a catastrophically poor election result. There is, of course, context behind her MPs’ patience, not least the fracturing of the political landscape and the rise of a new competitor on the right in Reform UK.
But while Badenoch’s future is secure for now, there is concern among some Tories that her dogged focus on winning back support from Nigel Farage’s party, with little on offer to more centrist voters, poses both political and reputational risks. The way we are going, we risk being seen as the nasty party again.” The phrase “nasty party” was coined by Theresa May in 2002, when the then party chair warned activists against focusing on too narrow a voter base and targeting other parts of society with punitive policies. Even if Badenoch has learned to prioritise core policy and walk away from culture war arguments, it seems she has not fully absorbed May’s lessons about not punching down.
In recent weeks, the Tories have pledged to bar non-Britons from social housing, strip UK citizenship from dual nationals convicted of serious crimes, and cut some benefits payments to a “subsistence” level, with restrictions preventing the money being used to buy alcohol or tobacco. The main pre-conference policy offering was in a similar vein: a pledge to slash overseas aid to pay for 50,000 new prison places. There are plenty of Conservative MPs who don’t view this as a problem.
This is, in part, because many of her MPs respect the way Badenoch has taken time over decisions and sought to make her case, with the ECHR plan prefaced by a 185-page report by David Wolfson, the shadow attorney general. But its is also a function of the apparent lack of appetite for a fight from centrist Conservatives such as the One Nation group, most of whom are either outside parliament, lying low on the backbenches or co-opted into the Badenoch project, as with Tom Tugendhat, made shadow foreign secretary in a recent mini-reshuffle. It’s not quite yet the Blues Brothers on a mission from God, but there’s a real sense of purpose.
There are no factions, no five families. The arguments have stopped.” This end of the arguments – at least for now – is in part down to Badenoch’s improved performance. While last year’s party conference was widely seen as make or break for a leader who had started shakily, she is now feted by Tory MPs for her performances in the Commons.
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