For the past couple of years, ranking first base was tough because there were so few really good options to choose from. In 2024, there were just five players who played at least 10 games at first base and had at least 80 RBI and 80 runs; in 2025, there were seven; in 2026, there have already been nine, and there are still 12 days left in the season. This holds true no matter which metric you use.
There have been nine 30-homer first basemen this season, compared to seven in 2025, four in 2024, and five in 2023. It's even more stark with OPS, where 17 first basemen have at least an .800 OPS while qualifying for the batting title; there were 13 in 2025 and just four in 2024. However you want to define it, this is the strongest the first base position has been in at least a few years.
This makes the stakes higher for drafting in 2027. Betting on a Bryce Harper bounce-back in 2026 was easier to do when there just weren't a ton of impact bats seemingly available; betting a top-50 pick that Vladimir Guerrero Jr. will dominate next season could prove incredibly costly, given the alternatives. Of course, with so many one-year wonders helping to fuel the gains at first base, there's also going to be risk all over the place.
Many of these breakouts will prove to be legitimate, but at least some will wind up coming back to Earth, and if you're the one investing big into one of those breakouts, you'll have to understand how much risk you're taking on. As we continue our look at the toughest players to rank for every position, first base has no shortage of options. I managed to whittle it down to eight names, but that was from an initial list of almost 15.
So, just because the position looks better than it has in a long time, that doesn't mean it's going to be easy to figure out for 2027 drafts. The weirdest thing about Guerrero's season is, in a lot of ways, he doesn't look like a significantly different hitter. His batting stance and swing look very similar to what they have in years past (unlike when Fernando Tatis was similarly struggling after dramatically changing his stance and setup), and he's still generating plenty of bat speed.
He's not hitting the ball as hard as he typically does. Still, it's not like a 90.5 mph average exit velocity and 44.5% hard-hit hate are terrible marks that explain why Guerrero is bottom-10 in all of baseball in Isolated Slugging percentage. He's nestled between Xavier Edwards (86.7 mph average exit velocity) and Xander Bogaerts (89.3).
Extract — continue reading at the source.
