Tropical Storm Nolo is currently tracking toward Hawaii, and forecasters anticipate it will strengthen into a hurricane later Thursday, prompting a hurricane watch for the entire Big Island as of Thursday afternoon. Tropical Storm Nolo formed on Wednesday, and as of the most recent update from the National Hurricane Center (NHC), it had maximum sustained winds of around 70 mph. The storm will officially become a hurricane once its wind speeds reach 74 mph or greater, which NHC meteorologists expect to happen later on Thursday.
A hurricane watch was issued by the NWS Honolulu office for the entirety of the Big Island early Thursday morning local time, which warned of a "threat to life and property that includes typical forecast uncertainty in track, size and intensity." National Weather Service (NWS) Honolulu meteorologist Maureen Ballard previously told Newsweek that parts of the Big Island are still recovering from Hurricane Lala, which brought torrential rain to the area in August. Ballard added that it's "unusual" for Hawaii to have so many tropical impacts so close together. El Niño, the warm phase of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) cycle, is likely contributing to the above-average season by causing warm waters and low wind shear in the Pacific basin.
As of the most recent forecast, the NHC does not anticipate that Tropical Storm Nolo will make direct landfall on the Big Island. However, significant impacts are still expected, and hundreds of thousands of people are being urged to prepare before the storm approaches the island as a major hurricane this weekend. The NHC expects Nolo to become a major hurricane by early Saturday morning.
A major hurricane is when the storm's wind speeds measure at least Category 3 on the Saffir-Simpson scale, which is 111 mph or greater. Animated weather footage from windy.com shows current wind gusts are around 65 mph closest to the storm's eye. By Saturday morning, when the storm approaches the island, maximum wind gusts are forecast to be around 111 mph.
The NHC forecasts anticipate that tropical storm-force winds, which are between 39 and 73 mph, could be felt across the Big Island as soon as Friday night. NWS Honolulu urged people on the Big Island to "prepare for catastrophic wind damage," which could include structural damage to buildings, such as complete roof or wall failures; large airborne projectiles; locations that become uninhabitable for months; snapped trees; impassable roads; and more. Widespread power and communication outages are also expected.
Heavy rainfall is among the most significant threats associated with the storm. The NHC anticipates that some parts of the Big Island could see as much as 35 inches of rain, with widespread amounts of 15 to 30 inches. Animated weather footage from windy.com shows that the southeast parts of the island will bear the brunt of the rainfall over the next three days.
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