Delegations from the U.S. and Iran are traveling to New York for the world’s largest diplomatic gathering this week in what experts say could be a key moment for determining the direction of the Iran war nearly seven months in. Tensions between the warring countries are mounting ahead of the United Nations General Assembly (UNGA), with Iranian leaders and President Donald Trump exchanging a fresh round of threats. Trump on Sunday weighed whether he should “blow the entire nation up” in an interview with Fox News, warning that Iran “better behave” and saying that “very big things” would happen in the war, without offering more detail.
According to the outlet, Trump described his options as “wiping Iran out, letting them rot economically, or making a deal.” A spokesperson for Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), Hossein Mohebbi, responded with a warning that if the U.S. were to launch fresh attacks against Iran, Tehran would use “new weapons and capabilities,” according to Iran's Fars news agency. The threats come after active hostilities in the conflict resumed in the last month when the U.S. and Iran traded fresh strikes amid tensions over the Strait of Hormuz, a key waterway in the global oil market. Meaningful negotiations between the two countries have meanwhile been stalled for weeks following the breakdown of a memorandum of understanding leaders signed in June.
And Yemen’s Iranian-backed Houthi rebels have further shaken the Gulf region by launching attacks against Saudi Arabia and capturing Perim Island, a strategic foothold in the Bab El-Mandeb Strait, another vital maritime trade route in the region. Read More: What Is the Status of the U.S.-Iran Peace Talks? Here's What Both Sides Are Saying Experts tell TIME that the U.N.
General Assembly gathering, where delegations from Iran, the U.S., and key Gulf states will be in attendance, could offer a critical chance to deescalate the situation and attempt to revive peace efforts—although making progress in negotiations could be an uphill battle. Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian and Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi will be in attendance as part of a slimmed-down delegation from the country. Both Trump and Pezeshkian are set to deliver addresses to the assembly.
Vaez says, however, that any effort to revive peace talks between the two countries during the event will largely rely on mediation by Gulf states. Trump is set to hold talks with leaders from the Gulf Cooperation Council—a regional alliance including Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Qatar, Kuwait, Oman, and Bahrain—on the sidelines of the gathering in the coming days. Sources with knowledge of the anticipated meeting told Axios, which first reported the news, that discussions are expected to concern next steps in the war with Iran, with a focus on U.S. ideas for a strategy after the conflict concludes.
Vaez believes that the Qataris could play a leading role in mediation efforts, with the support of countries such as Saudi Arabia, Oman, Turkey, Pakistan, and Egypt. Sanam Valki, director of the Middle East and North Africa Programme at the policy institute Chatham House, agrees that it is far more likely that Gulf states mediate between Iran and the U.S. But, she adds, a direct exchange between U.S. and Iranian delegations is also a possibility—albeit a very slim one.
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