Republican Mike Mazzei is the overwhelming favorite to defeat Democrat Cyndi Munson in Oklahoma’s gubernatorial election, according to two prediction markets, after emerging from a closely fought GOP primary runoff. Mazzei, a businessman and former state senator, narrowly defeated Oklahoma Attorney General Gentner Drummond on Tuesday to secure the Republican nomination. The result was a victory for Trump, who endorsed Mazzei and attacked Drummond as a “FAKE Republican” shortly before the runoff.
Mazzei will face Munson, the Oklahoma House minority leader, in the November 3 general election to replace term-limited Republican Governor Kevin Stitt. No Democrat has won an Oklahoma gubernatorial election since Brad Henry secured a second term in 2006. Prediction-market traders give Munson little chance of ending that losing streak.
As of Wednesday morning, Polymarket priced a Republican victory at about 96 percent and a Democratic victory at 5 percent, with about $27,000 traded on the race. Kalshi showed an even stronger advantage for the GOP, giving the Republican Party a 98 percent chance of winning while listing Munson’s chance at 11 percent. About $77,000 had been traded on the market.
The figures are market prices driven by traders and should not be treated as polling or a conventional election forecast. Newsweek has contacted Mazzei and Munson's campaigns, via email outside of normal working hours, for comment. Mazzei’s path to the nomination began with a near tie in the June 16 primary.
Drummond led the nine-candidate field with 26.25 percent of the vote, while Mazzei received 25.97 percent. Neither approached the majority required to avoid a runoff. The ensuing 10-week contest became an expensive and increasingly combative.
More than $14 million was spent on television and digital advertising during the runoff, largely by independent groups, after nearly $40 million had already been spent on the governor’s race, according to AdImpact figures cited by the AP. Mazzei largely financed his campaign through personal loans totaling at least $11.9 million. Drummond loaned his campaign at least $3.5 million and raised about $4.8 million more than Mazzei in direct contributions, but the state attorney general was unable to convert that fundraising advantage into victory.
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