President Donald Trump’s approval rating remains low in Senate battlegrounds as Democrats and Republicans are engaged in a tight battle for control the upper chamber of Congress just two weeks before the midterm elections. Republicans are facing headwinds as they defend their majority, where they currently hold 53 seats to the Democrats’ 47. Trump’s approval rating, as well as voters’ views about the economy, have fueled a challenging national environment for the GOP two years after Trump’s victory in 2024.
Historically, when the president is unpopular, his party loses seats in the midterms, and Democrats have been favored to retake the House this year. But the Senate has long been seen as a heavier lift. The Maine and North Carolina Senate seats were seen as clear pickups, but no other Republican-held seats were up for grabs in states Trump won by a single-digit margin or lost in 2024.
As Trump’s approval rating has fallen, the Senate map has expanded for Democrats. The Cook Political Report lists seven races—Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio and Texas—as toss-ups. Trump’s approval rating is underwater in all of those states, according to Civiqs, which has tracked it in every state since the start of second term in January 2025.
Whether or not those numbers improve over the next two weeks could play a role in the outcome of those races. Presidential approval is “one of the largest factors [if not the largest factor] driving voter behavior in a midterm election,” Jacob Neiheisel, political science professor at the University at Buffalo, told Newsweek. Neiheisel said he believes Trump’s poor approval numbers has given Democrats the ability to compete in tougher states.
Many of those races appear to be close, he said, noting that “a good night for Democrats could mean walking away with quite a few of the toss-up Senate seats.” Whether or not the polls are off, however, will not be known until Election Day, he said. "There is always a chance, however, that they are missing something.” Trump’s approval ratings have created a headache for Republicans in the final stretch of the campaign, as candidates are making their final pitches to voters. A recent poll from and Ipsos revealed where Trump’s approval stood nationally.
It found that his net approval rating was at -35 points, 31 percent approving and 66 percent disapproving, among 1,679 adults October 16-19, with a margin of error of plus or minus 2.4 percentage points. Trump has criticized such polls. On August 30, he posted on Truth Social: “THE FAKE POLLS USED BY OUR CROOKED MEDIA ARE OUT OF CONTROL, AND SOMETHING MUST BE DONE ABOUT IT.
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