Most Texan voters are either “extremely” or “very” concerned that Republican Senate candidate Ken Paxton, the current state attorney general, is “too close to Donald Trump,” according to a new Fox News survey. On Thursday, President Trump attended a rally in support of Paxton at the Peterbilt Motors plant in Denton along with retired basketball star Dennis Rodman. However, the Fox News poll suggests Paxton’s close alliance with Trump, as seen at Thursday’s rally, could be helping his Democratic opponent James Talarico.
Democrats hope to take control of the Senate in November, a move that would significantly impede Trump’s ability to pass legislation during the final two years of his second term. Winning a Texas Senate seat, which they last achieved in 1988, would be a major step towards this objective. Newsweek contacted the Paxton and Talarico Senate campaigns for comment on Friday via email and telephone.
Fox News surveyed 1,203 Texas registered voters, of which 881 were classified as likely voters, between September 24 and 28 with a 2.5 percentage point margin of error. The poll gave Talarico a 2-point lead, with 51 percent of the vote to 49 percent for Paxton, in the Senate contest, though this is within the margin of error. According to the survey, Talarico has done a much better job of acquiring the backing of self-described Democrats than Paxton has for Republicans.
Overall, 99 percent of Democrats said they would back Talarico versus just 1 percent for Paxton. By contrast, only 90 percent of Republicans said they would vote for Paxton, with 10 percent opting for Talarico. Paxton’s difficulty was particularly pronounced with Republicans who don’t identify as MAGA, of whom 22 percent said they would vote for Talarico.
By contrast, the poll showed he had the backing of 96 percent of MAGA Republicans, with only 4 percent going to Talarico. Notably, the poll found 37 percent of voters were “extremely concerned,” and another 14 percent were “very concerned” that Paxton “is too close to Donald Trump. By contrast, 29 percent of respondents said they were “not at all concerned,” while another 20 percent answered, “not very concerned.” Overall, once rounding was taken into account, 51 percent were “extremely” or “very” concerned, while 48 percent were “not very” or “not at all” concerned and another 1 percent answered, “don’t know.” Even among voters who identified as “non-MAGA” Republicans, 39 percent were “extremely” or “very” concerned about Paxton’s relationship with Trump, while 61 percent were “not very” or “not at all” bothered.
By contrast, among voters identifying as “MAGA” Republicans, only 10 percent were “extremely” or “very” concerned, while 89 percent were “not at all” or “not very” concerned. The survey also found 63 percent of Texan voters said Trump would be “extremely” or “very” important for their Senate vote, against 36 percent for “not very” or “not at all” important. This matches the result of a Big Data Poll of 698 likely Texas voters conducted between September 24 and 26, which found Talarico had the support of 15 percent of 2024 Trump voters, while Paxton only had the backing of 4.2 percent of 2024 Kamala Harris voters.
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