Diesel prices would come down "IN RECORD NUMBERS, AND FAST!" under a new agreement with Russia, President Donald Trump said on Friday, but energy analysts who spoke with Newsweek say the deal is unlikely to deliver significant relief before the November 3 midterm elections. Trump announced in a Truth Social post that Russian President Vladimir Putin had agreed to supply additional diesel fuel to global markets after the administration authorized transactions involving Russian diesel. But experts caution that while the agreement could help on the margins, the volumes involved are small compared to the broader supply shortfalls that have driven diesel prices sharply higher.
Newsweek reached out to the White House and Energy Department for comment on Monday. Experts who spoke with Newsweek on Monday were skeptical that the agreement would meaningfully lower diesel prices before the midterms. Patrick De Haan, head of petroleum analysis at GasBuddy, said the promised volumes appear too small to substantially change market conditions.
He told Newsweek that he does not expect the agreement to "meaningfully" affect U.S. diesel prices. "Perhaps slight decreases, but that's only if the deal actually happens," De Haan said. "Russia may not actually have enough diesel as this deal represents." Asked whether truckers, farmers and other major diesel users could see noticeable relief within the next three weeks, De Haan was equally doubtful.
"I don't believe this changes much," he said. "It doesn't add any supply to a global market that needs it badly." De Haan also questioned the scale of the announcement, noting that the initial 300,000-ton shipment cited by Trump represents only about a day and a half of typical U.S. diesel supply. "The amounts aren't exactly sizable," he said.
"The 300,000 tonnes is about 1.5 days of typical U.S. supply." He added that the promised exports are "very small" relative to global diesel demand and questioned whether Russia can deliver the volumes Trump described. Tom Kloza, senior energy and market adviser at Gulf Oil, raised a similar concern. "Would Russia be willing to part with diesel to the U.S. when it doesn't have enough to handle domestic needs?" Kloza told Newsweek.
Kloza added that refinery disruptions remain a major obstacle, noting that Russian refining capacity has been damaged by repeated drone attacks in the ongoing war with Ukraine and that refining systems elsewhere in the Middle East are also under pressure. Bob McNally, president of Rapidan Energy Group, reached a similar conclusion. He told Newsweek that the additional Russian barrels would help "on the margin" but are unlikely to materially lower prices in the coming weeks.
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