President Donald Trump's signature tax legislation is projected to worsen Social Security's financial outlook, according to government estimates. The law could worsen Social Security's finances by nearly $169 billion over a decade, according to an August 2025 letter from Karen Glenn, the Social Security Administration's (SSA) chief actuary, to Senator Ron Wyden (D-Ore.). The latest government projections show that the Old-Age and Survivors Insurance (OASI) Trust Fund is expected to exhaust its reserves in the fourth quarter of 2032, one quarter earlier than previously forecast.
"One thing I said and I gave my word; we're not going to hurt anybody on Medicaid, Medicare or Social Security," Trump said in August last year, adding that "we're doing great on Social Security" and "we're going to protect it." The latest Social Security Trustees Report, released in June, projects that the OASI fund will exhaust its reserves in the fourth quarter of 2032, one quarter earlier than forecast in the previous year's report. At that point, continuing revenue would cover only 78 percent of scheduled benefits unless Congress acts. Newsweek reached out to the White House for comment via email.
Social Security's financial problems predate Trump's legislation, but the One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA) reduced a source of revenue at a time when the program was already rapidly approaching depletion of its retirement trust fund. In a June analysis, the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget (CRFB) modeled a 24 percent benefit reduction, estimating that it would lower the average monthly payment by about $500. By comparison, the 2026 Trustees Report projects that continuing income would cover 78 percent of scheduled OASI benefits when the fund's reserves are exhausted, implying a 22 percent shortfall.
Trump signed the One Big Beautiful Bill Act into law on July 4, 2025. The legislation made permanent the lower individual income-tax rates and adjusted tax brackets introduced by the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act, while also changing certain standard and itemized deductions. Those tax provisions have an indirect consequence for Social Security.
Nobody's complaining about keeping more of their money,” Michael Ryan, a finance expert and the founder of MichaelRyanMoney.com, told Newsweek. Well, right now, nobody is.” Some beneficiaries pay federal income taxes on their Social Security benefits, and revenue generated by that taxation goes into the Social Security and Medicare trust funds. Because the OBBBA decreases beneficiaries' overall income-tax liability, the Social Security actuary projected that the trust funds would receive less revenue from the taxation of benefits beginning in 2025.
In an August 5, 2025 letter to Senator Ron Wyden, Chief Actuary Karen Glenn wrote: “Over calendar years 2025 through 2034, the total net increase in OASDI program cost is estimated to be $168.6 billion.” In her August 2025 analysis, Glenn also estimated that the law would worsen Social Security's projected 75-year actuarial balance by 0.16 percentage points of taxable payroll, moving it from a deficit of 3.82 percent under the 2025 Trustees Report baseline to 3.98 percent following implementation of the legislation. Most significantly for beneficiaries, Glenn estimated that the OASI fund would exhaust its reserves in the fourth quarter of 2032 rather than the first quarter of 2033 because of the legislation. So is the additional funding shortfall.” Glenn's August 2025 letter projected that the OBBBA, considered by itself against the 2025 Trustees Report baseline, would move OASI depletion from the first quarter of 2033 to the fourth quarter of 2032.
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