This article has been reviewed according to Science X's editorial process and policies. Editors have highlighted the following attributes while ensuring the content's credibility: Archaeological artifacts offer valuable insights into the history of past societies. They reveal not only technological developments but also the changing economic systems, cultural traditions and everyday practices of the people who lived at the time.
Pottery is one of the most informative archaeological materials because its shape often reflects not only how it was manufactured and used, but also the broader historical developments that shaped its production. However, identifying subtle changes in ceramic forms has traditionally relied on visual comparisons, making it difficult to quantitatively trace how pottery evolved over time and what these changes reveal about past societies. To investigate this, Associate Professor James Frances Loftus from the Institute of Future Science, the Institute for Liberal Arts and the School of Environment and Society at Institute of Science Tokyo (Science Tokyo), Japan, examined how the shapes of large ceramic vessels known as "Ogame" evolved during Japan's Edo period (1603–1868).
Published in the journal Open Archaeology, the study combines Geometric Morphometrics (GMM) (quantitative measurement and analysis of shape) with a Random Forest machine learning model to analyze the shapes of 243 jars recovered from 11 kiln and mortuary sites across the Saga and Fukuoka regions of Japan. The artificial intelligence (AI)-based approach also enabled the researcher to classify jars that lacked secure dates, addressing a longstanding challenge in historical archaeology. "Even ordinary household pottery can preserve a surprisingly rich record of technological and social change," explains Loftus.
"By combining GMM with machine learning, this study was able to quantify subtle changes in pottery shape that would have been difficult to recognize consistently through visual observation alone." Ogame were indispensable containers in early modern Japan, serving a wide range of purposes, including storing water and soy sauce, transporting agricultural fertilizers, collecting human waste and functioning as burial jars. Supporting both everyday life and burial practices, these versatile vessels played an important role throughout Edo-period society. Although previous studies have shown that the consolidation of Tokugawa domain control, the Qing maritime trade ban and the expansion of domestic production networks transformed the production and distribution of porcelain, far less attention has been paid to whether these same historical developments also influenced everyday utilitarian ceramics such as Ogame.
To measure morphological differences, Loftus digitized the outlines of each vessel using Elliptical Fourier Analysis, a GMM technique that captures subtle changes in shape. He then trained a Random Forest model to classify undated jars into different chronological stages based on these morphological characteristics. The results revealed that jars produced during the early 17th century displayed considerable variation in shape, whereas vessels made during the 18th century became increasingly uniform.
This transition coincided with major historical developments, including the consolidation of the Tokugawa shogunate, the Qing maritime trade ban and the expansion of domestic production networks. While archaeologists have long argued that these developments transformed ceramic production, this study provides the first quantitative evidence demonstrating that these broader historical changes were reflected in the evolving forms of everyday pottery. These patterns suggest that increasing regulation and specialization of ceramic workshops shaped production while allowing the vessels to be adapted for specific cultural needs.
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