Historian and political forecaster Allan Lichtman has predicted that Democrats will take control of the U.S. Senate in November’s midterm elections, forecasting that five Republican-held seats will flip to the Democrats. Lichtman, dubbed the “Nostradamus” of U.S. election forecasting, expects Democrats to hold Michigan and New Hampshire as well as winning North Carolina, Maine, Ohio, Texas and Alaska.
His forecast would give Democrats 52 Senate seats against 44 Republicans, with the remaining seats held by independents. Republicans currently hold 53 seats in the 100-member Senate, compared with 45 Democrats and two independents who caucus with Democrats, giving Republicans a 53-47 advantage in party alignment. In a video outlining his predictions, Lichtman pointed to growing dissatisfaction with President Donald Trump, strong Democratic enthusiasm and the party’s performance in recent special elections.
But do polling and prediction markets support his ambitious forecast? Newsweek contacted Lichtman's team via online form on Friday for comment. Lichtman describes North Carolina as the surest Democratic pickup, arguing that Republicans have withdrawn funding from the race.
RealClearPolling’s average of surveys conducted up to October 8 put Democratic former Governor Roy Cooper at 50 percent and Republican Michael Whatley at 43 percent. Kalshi's market listing gave Cooper a 96.5 percent chance of winning, compared with 3.5 percent for Whatley. Both indicators strongly favor Cooper, making North Carolina the most convincing of Lichtman’s five predictions based on those figures.
Lichtman predicts Republican Senator Susan Collins will lose despite her history of winning competitive elections. A polling average last updated October 1 put Democrat Troy Jackson at 48.4 percent and Collins at 46.6 percent. A Washington Post-Schar School poll published October 9 found Jackson leading 50 percent to 46 percent.
Kalshi’s market listing gave Jackson about a 66 percent chance of winning, against 34 percent for Collins. The figures favor Democrats, but the narrow polling lead suggests the race remains competitive. Lichtman expects Democratic former Senator Sherrod Brown to defeat Republican incumbent Jon Husted, arguing that Brown’s appeal to working-class voters could help him overcome Ohio’s Republican lean.
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