Democrats lead Republican-held Senate races in Texas, Ohio and Kansas, according to YouGov polling released Wednesday. A series of YouGov polls conducted among likely voters across seven states over the past three weeks paint a difficult picture for Republicans, whose Senate candidates trail in six contests. Voters in Michigan and New Hampshire favor Democratic candidates, while Florida is the only surveyed state where the Republicans lead.
Republicans hold a 53-47 Senate majority, leaving Democrats needing a net gain of four seats for control because JD Vance would break a 50-50 tie for the GOP. Democrats face a difficult Senate map with few obvious gains beyond Maine and North Carolina. Even if they defend every seat and capture both targets, they would still need two victories in states President Donald Trump carried by double digits in 2024.
An unexpectedly broad battlefield could force Republicans to defend states usually considered favorable territory. A Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee spokesperson told Newsweek in an emailed statement that Republicans were “scrambling to defend deep red states,” accusing the party of trying to distract from “scandal-plagued candidates” and an agenda that had increased costs “from gas to groceries to health care.” Natalie Baldassarre, the Republican National Committee’s (RNC) national press secretary, said Trump and other Republicans would continue “barnstorming the country” to promote their agenda, energize supporters and build momentum in battleground races Newsweek also reached out to every campaign mentioned below via email or website contact form seeking comment on Wednesday morning. Texas produces the most striking figure in the latest YouGov polling.
Former teacher and Presbyterian seminarian James Talarico, a Democratic state representative, leads Republican Ken Paxton, the state attorney general who has been endorsed by Trump, by 50 percent to 44 percent. YouGov questioned 3,625 likely voters from September 28 through October 5, with a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 3 percentage points. That six-point advantage is the only proposed Republican-seat flip in which the gap exceeds the survey’s stated error margin.
It also rests on unusually settled coalitions: 97 percent of Talarico supporters and 96 percent of Paxton backers said their minds were made up. Talarico has emphasized mobilization during the campaign, particularly among younger and less frequent voters. Joshua Blank, research director of the Texas Politics Project, told Newsweek in a phone call on Tuesday that Democratic competitiveness requires “a surge in engagement among less traditional Democratic-leaning voters.” Republicans have answered by trying to rebuild enthusiasm around Paxton, with RNC spokesman Zach Kraft telling Newsweek via email that the party’s “cavalry has arrived” during the closing stretch.
Former Senator Sherrod Brown is at 49 percent against Republican Senator Jon Husted, also backed by Trump, on 45 percent. That poll covered 3,780 likely voters from September 18 through 30 and carried a plus or minus 2.5-point error margin, meaning Brown’s four-point lead is suggestive rather than conclusive. In Ohio, the fight is landing at kitchen-table level: residents near proposed data centers have raised concerns about electricity bills, water, farmland and property values.
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