American students are often described as falling behind the world in science and math. The reality is more specific. The top students are declining, and the students at the bottom are falling even further behind.
And the gap between them is growing wider every year. This is not a ranking problem. It is a systemic problem, and it threatens the country's economy and national security.
The American Society of Mechanical Engineers reports that the United States could lose up to $1.4 trillion in economic output over the next decade if the supply of STEM talent fails to keep pace with demand. The United States Department of Defense reports a shortage of over 20,000 cybersecurity professionals, including 7,000 essential positions. According to the National Center for Education Statistics, U.S. 15-year-olds scored 502 in science on the 2025 Program for International Student Assessment, above the OECD average.
But the same assessment found a 298-point gap between the 90th and 10th percentile of American students. That gap is larger than the OECD average and larger than the gaps in around 78 other systems. A study by NAEP Science saw the percentile scores by science content areas drop, on average, by around 4 points between 2019 and 2024.
What is most shocking is that there is a drop at every percentile band in the study. The entire country is struggling in science. This gap is visible from the inside.
I spent years working in jet engine research, commercial aircraft manufacturing, and national laboratories. Many times I found myself to be the only American in the room. At first, I assumed it was a coincidence.
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