Republican candidate for Ohio Governor Vivek Ramaswamy's odds of winning the race against Democrat Amy Acton dipped to a new low on prediction market site Kalshi on Monday as the race for the governor's mansion heats up before midterms. According to the prediction market site, Ramaswamy's odds in April fell below Acton's before surging at the end of May. He again trailed Acton around August 13, and has not rebounded since.
Kalshi on Monday posted to X that Ramaswamy's odds of 43 percent marked his new all-time overall low. Midterm elections are commonly viewed as a test of the political environment facing the party in power, and the president's party has historically lost seats during midterm elections. Republicans currently hold a narrow majority in both the House and Senate.
President Donald Trump won Ohio in the 2024 presidential election versus then-Vice President Kamala Harris by double digits and he has backed Ramaswamy, also a candidate for the White House two years ago, in his bid for the governor's seat. Newsweek reached out to both Acton and Ramaswamy's campaigns via email on Monday for comment. Ramaswamy and Acton, a physician who previously led Ohio's Department of Health, face off as GOP Governor Mike DeWine is term-limited.
Although Ohio twice voted for former President Barack Obama, in 2008 and 2012, the state has recently trended Republican in election cycles, backing Trump in three consecutive presidential contests. Democrats also suffered a notable loss in the last election when longtime Democratic Senator Sherrod Brown lost his bid for another term to Republican Bernie Moreno. Even so, Democrats see Ohio as one of their best pickup opportunities in the 2026 midterms.
In addition to the governor's race, the party is eyeing Brown's Senate comeback attempt against Republican Senator Jon Husted. Recent surveys have also seemingly pointed to close contests, with Acton and Brown often holding slim leads. The Cook Political Report rates the Ohio Senate election contest as a toss-up.
Democrats hope to capitalize on Trump's unfavorable polling as his overall approval rating hits record lows as well as key administrative policies like immigration, the economy and foreign policy amid the ongoing war with Iran. Prediction market site Polymarket gives Acton a 58 percent chance of winning compared to Ramaswamy's 41 percent. On the site, Acton has led her Republican opponent since late August.
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