Wall Street heads into the new week with a relatively light economic calendar, but investors will have plenty to watch as major retailers offer fresh clues on the health of the US consumer. Home Depot kicks off the retail earnings slate Tuesday, followed by Target on Wednesday and Walmart on Thursday. Together, the reports should provide a useful snapshot of consumer spending as elevated borrowing costs, a sluggish housing market and persistent price pressures continue to shape behavior.
Walmart is likely to be the week's biggest retail event. Investors will be looking for the retail giant's latest take on consumer spending, pricing and the impact of tariffs. Walmart has topped earnings estimates in 15 of the past 16 quarters, making its guidance particularly important for the broader retail sector.
Home Depot will be watched for signs of resilience in home-improvement demand. Weak housing affordability and higher interest rates have made big-ticket renovations more challenging, putting the company's outlook in focus. Target, meanwhile, should offer a read on discretionary spending and its expectations for the second half of the year.
Investors will be looking for signs that consumers are becoming more cautious or continuing to spend despite economic uncertainty. Other notable earnings include Baidu and Analog Devices on Tuesday; TJX Companies, Lowe's and Estee Lauder on Wednesday; and Alibaba, Deere and Ross Stores on Thursday. The other major focus will be the Federal Reserve.
Minutes from the Fed's July meeting are due Wednesday and should provide more detail on the debate that led policymakers to leave interest rates unchanged. Three officials dissented in favor of a 25-basis-point rate hike, highlighting the divide over how long rates should remain restrictive. Investors will be looking for clues about what could prompt the Fed to raise rates later this year.
Wells Fargo expects the minutes to show that most policymakers remain willing to wait for now, while maintaining a relatively low threshold for further hikes if inflation fails to cool. The bank noted that softer employment and inflation data since the July meeting could mean policymakers are now somewhat more dovish. Deutsche Bank remains in the camp expecting a September rate hike, although it said recent inflation data may reduce the urgency for immediate action.
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