The Brewers' 3-2 win over the Padres in Game 1 of their National League Division Series on Saturday night in Milwaukee featured a bizarre and controversial moment in the ninth inning. With the Brewers clinging to that one-run lead with one out and the potential tying run on base, closer Trevor Megill delivered a 1-0 fastball to Padres slugger Ty France, whose blast hit a cable on the roof of the ballpark and landed in the glove of Milwaukee's Jackson Chourio at the left field warning track. Here's what happened: The ground rules at American Family Field, the site of Game 1, say the following: The umpires agreed that the ball struck the roof over fair territory, and a challenge by Padres manager Craig Stammen was unsuccessful.
That meant Chourio's heads-up and skilled play on the ball would stand. In keeping with those ground rules above, it appears to be the correct call. The question then becomes whether France's batted ball would've been a home run if it had been allowed to continue unimpeded.
France hit the ball off the bat at 105.3 mph and a 49-degree launch angle. Even after hitting the roof, it traveled 325 feet and, according to Statcast estimates, would've been a home run in one MLB ballpark -- Daikin Park in Houston. That said, it's very hard to hit a ball out of the park at such a steep launch angle.
As Timothy Burke posted on Bluesky, no ball in the Statcast era that had an exit velocity of 105 mph and a launch angle of 49 degrees has ever been a home run. The batted balls with those traits have a batting average of .037 and, again, no home runs. While no one can say definitively that France's batted ball would not have been a go-ahead homer for the Padres had it not struck the roof, the best available evidence strongly suggests it would not have been.
"We joked about it at the umpire meeting today about what would happen if the ball hit the roof," Stammen said postgame. "And it was unlikely, but it happened. The rule is, if they deemed the ball to be fair and it comes down, you can catch it.
If it hits off the roof foul, then it's a foul ball. So they ruled that it hit the roof fair and the outfielder caught it. "Unfortunately a bad break for us.
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