Serbia has reached a watershed moment following 14 years of authoritarian rule by Aleksandar Vucic and his Serbian Progressive Party (SNS). Sunday’s election delivered a historic victory for the opposition Student List, ending the political dominance that Vucic and the SNS had exercised/enforced for 14 years. As Belgrade prepares for a turbulent transition and the upcoming presidential elections in December, international observers and regional neighbours have been asking whether Vucic’s departure will prompt a shift in Serbia’s foreign policy.
However, while international analysts often anticipate a quick foreign policy pivot toward the West whenever an authoritarian regime falls, experts warn that internal consolidation will take immediate priority and any transformation will be gradual. SNS’s defeat has brought a mixture of cautious optimism and uncertainty across the Western Balkans. Serbia’s relations with Bosnia and Herzegovina, Croatia, Montenegro and Kosovo have often been frayed by Vucic’s nationalistic rhetoric.
Aleksandar Popov, director of the Centre for Regionalism in Novi Sad in Serbia, told Al Jazeera that a rapid reset in regional relations was unlikely. The new authorities will first have to tackle domestic problems, he said, including dealing with a system that has “captured all democratic institutions”, as well as problems in the judiciary, prosecution service, police and media sector. While relations with Croatia are “not frozen” neither are they “the way they should … be between neighbours”, being marked by frequent sharp words.
Amid recent mass protests in Serbia, Vucic accused Zagreb of organising a “colour revolution”. In addition, “relations with Montenegro are disrupted and issues with Bosnia and Herzegovina remain unresolved,” he said. Croatia is the thorniest case, Popov suggested, noting that relations deteriorated as the SNS clashed with Croatia’s ruling Croatian Democratic Union (HDZ), which stems from a similar nationalist-populist stable.
Meanwhile, behind the public hostility, lay a quiet convergence on Bosnia and Herzegovina, he argued, with Belgrade backing Republika Srpska leader Milorad Dodik and Zagreb favouring a third entity. He expressed hope that a new government in Serbia led by experts and civic leaders, would work towards stabilising the region and revive Serbia’s hopes of joining the European Union. The new government’s task will be to repair those damaged ties,” Popov said.
Beyond the immediate neighbourhood, global powers are closely watching Belgrade. Under Vucic, Serbia maintained a delicate balancing act, refusing to impose sanctions on Russia despite heavy pressure from the EU, while simultaneously allowing ammunition to flow indirectly to Ukraine. Of all elements of Serbian public policy, foreign policy will transform the least under the forthcoming governmental changes, Vuk Vuksanovic, a lecturer in foreign policy at King’s College London, predicted to Al Jazeera.
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