With November already on the horizon the UK is yet to see its first named storm of the season. Deep Atlantic lows responsible for more turbulent conditions have been steered away by dominant areas of high pressure. This year the headlines have been about worsening drought rather than the impact of gales.
However, could this be the calm before the storms as the Met Office predict a growing chance that late autumn and early winter will turn wetter and windier as El Niño strengthens in the Pacific. As autumn sets in and the nights get longer temperatures around polar regions start to fall. This causes a greater contrast with the warmer tropics which can fire up a more potent jet stream - the fast moving, narrow band of fast winds high in the atmosphere.
The jet stream is largely responsible for developing and delivering our stormier pressure systems. Typically in autumn the jet stream would be a regular visitor to the skies above the UK, steering wet and windy weather towards us. However, so far this season it has often been sitting to the north or north-west of the UK.
This has meant south or south-westerly winds bringing warmer than normal conditions and high pressure having more of an influence leading to reduced rainfall for many. These weather patterns have therefore meant only occasional bouts of stronger winds across the north-west of the UK, with little disruption. The heaviest of the rain has also been focused across Scotland and Northern Ireland while parts of England and Wales have continued to be much drier than normal.
Parts of Herefordshire for instance have only received a tenth of the rainfall they would normally have seen by mid-October so far this month. Some of the biggest impacts of the dry weather have been across the southern England where exceptionally low reservoir levels have prompted the Environment Agency to declare "severe drought" in some areas. Is there a hosepipe ban in my area?
What you need to know A change in the position of that jet stream and its strength is expected through the coming week. This will allow deeper low pressure systems to affect more parts of the UK marking a shift to a more widespread wetter and windier weather. Forecasts will need to be monitored closely as there is potential later in the week that we could see our first spell of widely disruptive weather this season.
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