US President Donald Trump has claimed that the US Navy has removed or detonated all sea mines in the Strait of Hormuz – the vital waterway in the Gulf which Iran effectively closed after the US and Israel first launched attacks on the country nearly six months ago. But on Wednesday, Iran’s Deputy Foreign Minister Kazem Gharibabadi said the strait remains closed, despite a temporary transit-route agreement with Oman, while he dismissed Trump’s claim that all mines had been cleared. Meanwhile, in addition to agreeing on a new transit route for ships crossing through the strait, Iran and Oman have agreed to implement a joint project to clear mines from the strait, according to a statement from the two countries this week.
Before the war began, approximately 130 ships passed through the strait each day, transporting about one-fifth of the world’s oil and natural gas supplies from Gulf producers. Analysts say the US assessment that mines have been cleared from key shipping lanes is likely credible. But that does not mean Hormuz is necessarily completely mine-free – or that commercial shipping can safely return to pre-war levels.
A small number of “drifting” or uncharted mines could remain outside the heavily monitored shipping lanes, while Iran retains the ability to lay more. Experts also cautioned that mines are only one aspect of the threat facing vessels needing to pass through the strait. With no ceasefire agreement in place and the US announcing what it has described as an “economic D-Day” of sanctions against Iran, the prospect of renewed open warfare remains.
That uncertainty carries a major cost. According to a report published by S&P Global in July, since the war began, war-risk insurance costs for ships traversing the waterway have soared from between 1 and 3 percent of a ship’s hull value to between 7.5 and 10 percent of hull value. War-risk insurance premiums are likely to remain high, experts say, leaving many shipping companies reluctant to resume transiting the Strait of Hormuz.
Weeks after the war erupted in late February, Iran’s National Defence Council said any attempt by “the enemy” to target Iranian coasts or islands would lead to the mining of the Strait of Hormuz. For a while, it remained unclear whether Tehran was bluffing. But evidence soon emerged that mines had been deployed, although Iran has never outright confirmed this.
On May 30, Oman’s Maritime Security Centre warned shipping operators to exercise caution after an “object suspected to be a floating mine” was sighted near its side of the strait. Three days later, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio told the Senate Foreign Relations Committee that Iran had “mined large segments of Hormuz – international waters”. Then, in a June 11 notice, Germany’s navy, citing information received from the US and British navies, said mines had been reported at four locations around the strait, although it could not verify their positions.
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