Republicans had banked on their mid-decade redistricting efforts as insurance against a blue wave this week, but the party still suffered losses in the majority of targeted districts they redrew ahead of the midterms. The “redistricting war” that preceded this year’s elections was initially expected by many—from inside and outside of the party—to result in sizable gains in Texas and Florida, while allowing the GOP to pick up a handful more seats in other states. But beyond prompting California to use its own gerrymandered districts—the congressional map having been amended to help Democrats pick up a handful of additional seats—the results on Tuesday night swiftly began to show that the GOP’s efforts had fallen flat.
Of those districts the party redrew in its favor, nine races were rated as a toss up, leaning or likely going to the Democrats by the nonpartisan Cook Political Report as of Tuesday morning. Of these, Republicans had lost all nine by shortly after 2 a.m. This was mostly tied to pro-Republican efforts, though Ohio was constitutionally required to redraw its districts while Utah’s change was due to a successful legal challenge against its past map and a subsequent court ruling that led to a Democratic-leaning Salt Lake City district.
And California’s redistricting by its Democratic-controlled legislature—and approved by the state’s voters—was a direct response to the GOP plans in Texas. Of the several districts impacted by these plans, the Cook Political Report labeled two as “Likely Democrat,” three as “Lean Democrat” and four as “Toss Up” races as of its latest update on Monday, November 2. Cook describes its assessment of competitiveness as incorporating “the district's political makeup, the candidates' strengths and weaknesses, the political environment in the state and nationally, and interviews with candidates and campaign professionals.” Newsweek contacted the Republican parties for the below states for comment.
Who: Republican governor and legislature Florida’s redistricting efforts aggressively reshaped the map in the GOP’s favor, weakening voting strength for the Democrats in four seats across the Tampa, Orlando and South Florida regions. Evan Power, chairman of the Republican Party of Florida, told Newsweek that the shifts reflect “major population changes that have occurred since 2020,” adding that COVID-related disruptions to the latest Census “contributed to an undercount of Florida’s residents.” “Republican leaders like Governor DeSantis remain popular and are working together to a Republican victory that help bring Byron Donalds and other Republican candidates across the finish line on November 3,” he said. Result: Castor defeats Republican Mike Beltran: 51.2 percent to 45.9 percent Open race: Lois Frankel (D) running in redrawn FL-23 Result: Democrat Pia Dandiya defeats Republican Casey Askar: 51.9 percent to 48.1 percent Result: Moskowitz defeats Republican Scott Singer: 51.3 percent to 46.7 percent North Carolina’s GOP-controlled legislature took Greene, Lenoir, Wayne and Wilson counties out of the Democrat-held 1st congressional district, swapping these out for more Republican-friendly areas like Beaufort, Carteret and Pamlico counties.
Result: Davis defeats Republican Laurie Buckhout: 49.6 percent to 47.2 percent The bipartisan effort led to targeted rather than sweeping changes to Ohio’s congressional maps. Districts held by Democrats became more Republican and vice versa in many cases. Ultimately, however, Republicans were in favor of the changes and touted these as giving them an edge in 12 of Ohio’s 15 districts compared with only 10 previously.
The map's new boundaries moved two Democratic districts to the right and one—OH-13—to the left. Result: Landsman defeats Republican Eric Conroy: 54.4 percent to 42.9 percent Result: Kaptur defeats Republican Derek Merrin: 52.7 percent to 47.3 percent In Texas—the main target of Trump and the party—Republicans significantly reworked Democrat coalition districts in Dallas, Houston, South Texas and the Austin–San Antonio corridor. This directly targeted five Democratic-held districts, while impacting several more in the process.
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