This article has been reviewed according to Science X's editorial process and policies. Editors have highlighted the following attributes while ensuring the content's credibility: From 2010 to 2024, the Amazon rainforest—the largest tropical rainforest on the planet—released an average of 1.17 billion metric tons more carbon dioxide (CO₂) into the atmosphere than it absorbed each year. Wildfires were the main source, emitting approximately 1.47 billion metric tons of CO₂ per year—far exceeding the forest's absorption capacity of 300 million metric tons per year.
This information comes from a study published in Nature and led by scientists from Brazil's National Institute for Space Research (INPE). Based on an analysis of 15 years of measurements of atmospheric carbon, the primary greenhouse gas, the study identified human activities as the factor responsible for this imbalance. Therefore, the study emphasizes the need for a drastic reduction in wildfires, combined with zero deforestation and forest restoration, to prevent the forest from reaching a tipping point—a threshold beyond which it loses its ability to sustain itself and recover, giving way to other types of vegetation.
This warning is particularly important given that the number of wildfires in the Brazilian Amazon is approaching the total for 2025. According to INPE data, there have been more than 41,200 recorded fires in less than 10 months (58% of which occurred in September and October), compared to 43,130 fires for all of last year. Dense smoke has blanketed municipalities in the state of Amazonas, especially the capital city of Manaus.
This has led to the suspension of classes, an overload of the health care system due to respiratory problems and an investigation into environmental crime with suspicion of deliberate human action. "The main message of the study is shocking: the problem in the Amazon is human activity. We're losing the forest because the region's development model has been based on destruction.
We need public policies that value the standing forest," says Luciana Vanni Gatti, climate scientist, coordinator of INPE's Greenhouse Gas Laboratory (LaGEE) and lead author of the article. In addition to identifying factors associated with emissions, the study highlights changes in the region's climate conditions over the decades. By analyzing data from the past 46 years, the scientists found that deforestation and degradation in the Amazon have reduced annual precipitation by 8% and by 20% during the peak of the dry season (between August and October).
During the same period, the average annual temperature increased by 1.13°C, and by 1.81°C during the dry season. According to Gatti, these changes compromise the conditions necessary for the rainforest's survival. They contribute to a feedback loop in which the loss of vegetation reduces rainfall and raises temperatures.
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