Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu will struggle to retain power, according to latest polling ahead of his first electoral test since the October 2023 Hamas-led attacks and the subsequent conflicts in Gaza, against Iran, Hezbollah, and the Houthis. Israeli media have given a range of forecasts depending on their affiliation, with the final preelection polls allowed under law pointing to a deadlock after the ballot, which takes place on Tuesday October 27. Amid the uncertainty of the outcome, at the very least lies the consensus view about the importance of the election, which has been touted in some quarters as the country's most important since the founding of the state.
"This is the first opportunity since 2023 to really express, other than through protests, what citizens feel about the government," said Liran Harsgor, an expert on electoral behavior and voter turnout in Israel from the University of Haifa School of Political Science. "Everyone feels that this is a very crucial moment," she told Newsweek. Israel's parliament, the Knesset, has 120 seats, meaning that a majority of 61 seats is required for a government to take power.
Under its proportional representation system, governments have always been coalitions. If no bloc can form a majority, a minority group can take power. Polling puts incumbent Netanyahu and his right-wing Likud party in a tight race with Gadi Eisenkot, a former head of the Israel Defense Forces (IDF), who formed the centrist Yashar Party only last year.
"It's not about the big parties in Israel. It could be that Netanyahu gets more votes than Eisenkot, but he doesn't have enough coalition partners," said Harsgor. Also in contention are the far-right figures of Minister of National Security Itamar Ben-Gvir of Otzma Yehudit and Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich of the Religious Zionist Party.
There are also former prime ministers Naftali Bennett, a right-wing politician, and Yair Lapid, a centrist, who are running on the joint B'Yachad ticket. Other figures in the frame are Yair Golan from the center-left Democrats, Avigdor Lieberman from secular right-wing Yisrael Beiteinu, as well as two Arab party blocs. Israel.com has outlined the average of nine polls published over the last two weeks.
By law, there could be no further polling from Friday until election day on Tuesday. Yashar, Eisenkot's party, has come first in eight out of nine polls with an average of 22.1 seats, according to Israel.com. Likud averaged 20.6 although it did top the i24 News poll.
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