This article has been reviewed according to Science X's editorial process and policies. Editors have highlighted the following attributes while ensuring the content's credibility: Every shallow-water coral reef ecosystem in Australia faces an extremely high risk of collapse by 2075, driven largely by projected ocean warming, according to a global assessment. The assessment, a collaboration between the International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN), researchers at the University of Melbourne and more than 250 researchers around the world, found that 96% of the world's assessed coral reef ecosystems are now classified as critically endangered under the IUCN Red List of Ecosystems.
The study evaluated coral reef ecosystems in 127 tropical and subtropical marine ecoregions, including some of the world's largest and most biodiverse reef systems such as Australia's Great Barrier Reef, the Coral Triangle in Southeast Asia and the western Pacific, the Mesoamerican Barrier Reef and the Red Sea. The assessment classified all 17 Australian coral reef ecosystems as critically endangered, with increasing marine heat stress and mass bleaching predicted under future climate scenarios. Researchers found that climate-driven ocean warming is the most widespread and severe threat to coral reefs globally.
Increasing marine heat waves are causing mass coral bleaching events and widespread coral mortality, placing ecosystems under unprecedented pressure. Mishal Gudka, a University of Melbourne research fellow and scientific lead of the global assessment, said the risk of coral reef collapse is escalating, but this must be a wake-up call rather than a cause for despair. "Coral reefs have shown a remarkable ability to bounce back from devastating bleaching events.
Pockets of surviving, resilient coral reefs can remain in the future—but we must do everything within our reach to set them up for success," Gudka, from the School of Agriculture, Food and Ecosystem Sciences, said. "Our assessment shows that much of the risk is driven by projected changes that have not yet fully materialized, and now is a critical window to scale up conservation and climate efforts to avoid catastrophic loss." Dr. Ben Fitzpatrick, Oceanwise Australia director and adjunct research fellow at the University of Western Australia's Oceans Institute, who led the assessment on Australia's coral reef ecosystems, said although Australian coral reefs can respond well to local management, these gains are increasingly being overwhelmed by our changing climate.
"Unfortunately, these climate change impacts are only expected to intensify under current climate change trajectories, making the risk of collapse for all our coral reefs exceptionally high," Fitzpatrick said. "If we double down on local management and achieve rapid decarbonization, we can avoid this outcome, but the window for action is rapidly closing." Despite covering less than 1% of the ocean floor, coral reefs support around a quarter of all marine species. They provide habitat, food and breeding grounds for thousands of species while supporting fisheries, tourism and coastal protection for millions of people worldwide.
Discover the latest in science, tech, and space with over 100,000 subscribers who rely on Phys.org for daily insights. d research that matter—daily or weekly. A coral reef ecosystem is considered collapsed when reef-building hard corals largely disappear and are replaced by algae, rubble and other organisms. This transformation fundamentally alters the ecosystem.
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