A rumor is circulating that President Donald Trump has caved to China’s most important demand: Taiwan. It’s been fueled by the usual tendency to listen to what the Republican says rather than what he does. Trump was one of the first U.S. presidents to publicly admit that attempting to defend Taiwan from a Chinese attack might be folly.
The democratically governed island is only 80 miles from the Chinese coast, with outlying territory even closer. Defense planners in Washington and Taipei must confront an inconvenient truth, but the obstacle tells us little about American resolve in the next Taiwan Strait crisis. It also ignores the challenges Beijing faces, regardless of the U.S. appetite to fight another war.
Even the most skeptical of leaders in the White House would find it hard to reverse decades of U.S. policy designed to preserve American interests in Taiwan, both strategic and economic. A closer look at the Trump administration’s recent actions suggests his words and actions don’t match—and not in a way that would please China. Trump’s eagerness to make up with Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping led to a much-publicized state visit to Beijing in May that was full of pomp and circumstance.
He returned the favor last month in an unprecedented welcome for America’s top geopolitical rival. Trump knows how much Xi wants Taiwan—control of the high-tech island would be a legacy-defining win for any Communist Party leader—so policy analysts in Washington, D.C., balked at his apparent openness to discussing current and future arms sales to Taipei with Beijing—the very thing keeping the Chinese military at bay. China’s state media outlets rejoiced at what they saw as a return to realism: the U.S. president, who seemed more preoccupied with the Western Hemisphere and issues at the United States' southern border, was finally coming to terms with the growing cross-strait power imbalance tilting in Beijing’s favor.
He was saying all the right things. Xi will be disappointed this month by reports that the Department of Defense is preparing to place U.S. officials at the heart of Taiwan’s military establishment to cooperate more closely on joint planning and help Taipei integrate its new American weapons systems with the Taiwanese armed forces. The move is part of a $14.77 million multiyear program led by Elbridge Colby, the undersecretary of defense for policy.
It elevates U.S.-Taiwan defense ties to a level not seen since the two governments shared a mutual defense pact from 1955-1979, only terminated when Washington and Beijing established formal diplomatic ties. It was always an open secret that the U.S. dispatches hundreds of military instructors to assist Taiwan each year. The new program institutionalizes the quiet security cooperation.
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