A Democrat is threatening a historic upset in deep-red Mississippi after a poll put Senator Cindy Hyde-Smith just four points ahead of challenger Scott Colom. The Wedgewood Polls survey found Hyde-Smith leading Colom 52 percent to 48 percent, a gap inside its 4.3-point margin of error. The poll of 511 likely voters was conducted from October 12 to 14.
The result arrived after Sabato’s Crystal Ball shifted the contest from “Safe Republican” to “Likely Republican,” signaling that the race has become more competitive even though Hyde-Smith remains favored. The poll’s crosstabs show a divided electorate. Colom drew 91 percent support among Black voters and led 56 percent to 44 percent among voters aged 18 to 29.
Hyde-Smith took 78 percent among white voters and 88 percent among respondents who recalled voting for President Donald Trump in 2024. Black voters represented 37 percent of the weighted sample. The survey was independently designed and funded by Wedgewood Polls, according to its methodology.
Respondents were recruited through an online panel, screened for registration and likelihood of voting, and weighted by gender, age, race, ethnicity and education. Margins of error for subgroups are larger. The findings add to signs of growing Democratic interest in a state where Republicans have long held the Senate seat.
The Wall Street Journal reported last month that Democratic donors were directing money toward the race, viewing Mississippi as a possible target. Still, the survey tested only Hyde-Smith and Colom, while independent candidate Ty Pinkins is also on the November 3 ballot. That makes the head-to-head result an incomplete measure of the full contest.
Colom would become Mississippi’s first Democratic senator elected since 1982 if he prevailed. The race now offers Democrats an improbable opportunity, but one poll within the margin of error does not establish a trend. This is a developing story.
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