Democrats hold their widest advantage of the election cycle in Quantus Insights’ congressional polling, leading Republicans by 8.6 points among likely voters in mid-September. Emerson and Marquette surveys also show a clear Democratic edge as control of Congress approaches a decisive test. Candidates in competitive House and Senate races face a political climate shaped by dissatisfaction with the country’s direction and President Donald Trump’s low approval.
National generic-ballot polls measure which party voters prefer for Congress rather than testing named candidates. They offer a broad view of the political environment, but local campaigns, district boundaries and turnout will determine who wins. Quantus Insights’ survey of 1,389 likely voters, conducted September 15 to 18, found 50.3 percent supporting the Democratic candidate in their congressional district and 41.7 percent favoring the Republican.
Another 6.3 percent were undecided and 1.7 percent selected another candidate. The design-adjusted margin of error was plus or minus 2.9 percentage points. Democrats retained an advantage among habitual voters.
Respondents who participated in the 2022 midterms favored the party 50 percent to 43.9 percent, while people who voted in all four general elections from 2018 through 2024 broke 50.3 percent to 43.9 percent. Several demographic divides help explain the overall result. Women preferred Democratic candidates by 20.3 points, while men favored Republicans by 4.2 points.
Democrats led voters younger than 30 by 33.7 points and those ages 30 to 44 by 23.2 points. Republicans held smaller advantages among both older groups. Geography produced an equally sharp split.
Suburban voters backed Democrats 49.9 percent to 42 percent, while rural respondents chose Republicans 58.4 percent to 34.2 percent. Urban voters favored Democrats by 37.2 points. Trump’s approval rating stood at 39.6 percent, compared with 59.1 percent who disapproved, giving him a net approval rating (those who approve minus those who disapprove) of -19.5 percentage points.
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