This article has been reviewed according to Science X's editorial process and policies. Editors have highlighted the following attributes while ensuring the content's credibility: Americans are heading into the 2026 midterm elections with widespread uncertainty about the integrity of the vote, according to a new national survey from the University of California San Diego. When asked whether they expect the November 2026 elections to be free and fair, just 49% of voters said yes.
Nearly one-quarter, 23%, said no, while another 28% said they did not know. The survey of 5,016 American adults, conducted Sept. 1–9, was led by UC San Diego's Center for Transparent and Trusted Elections. The results show some areas of broad agreement across party lines on what is driving voter concerns, alongside sharp divisions over others.
Researchers with the center have been tracking Americans' trust in elections in recent years, and the latest survey shows trust in the accuracy of the national vote count has fallen sharply since the 2024 presidential election. Immediately after the election, 77% of Americans said they were confident votes nationwide had been counted as intended. That fell to 60% by January 2026 and has now dropped to 55%.
The decline has occurred across party lines but has been particularly pronounced among independents in recent months. Their confidence fell 8 percentage points, from 57% in January to 49% in September. Over the same period, confidence among Democrats fell from 64% to 63% and among Republicans from 65% to 58%.
The January survey documented the earlier decline across all three partisan groups. These views also appear to be firmly held: 89% of respondents said they were at least moderately certain about their level of confidence. "What stands out is that trust isn't declining within just one party—we're seeing confidence fall among Democrats, Republicans and independents," said Thad Kousser, center co-director and professor in the Department of Political Science at UC San Diego's School of Social Sciences.
"Democrats, Republicans and independents all express doubts, although what drives those doubts can be very different." One issue that crosses party lines is the potential influence of artificial intelligence. More than three-quarters of Americans—76%—said they are concerned that misleading audio or video deepfakes created using AI will affect the 2026 midterm elections. When asked whether AI will be mostly beneficial or mostly harmful in the midterms, respondents across every partisan group were more likely to view it as harmful.
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