Three Republican-held districts in the nation’s data center capital have become more competitive ahead of November’s midterms, according to recent race rating changes and internal polling seen exclusively by Newsweek. Earlier this year, Virginia appeared destined to recede from the national battlefield when its Supreme Court nullified a redistricting effort that could have improved Democratic prospects in four GOP seats. The ruling required the state to retain the congressional boundaries used in 2022 and 2024.
Speaking to Newsweek, a Democratic campaign operative described Virginia as an “unexpected state” in this year’s House battlefield, arguing that Republicans had assumed the redistricting effort’s failure would insulate their incumbents. But this week, Sabato’s Crystal Ball moved Republican Representative Jen Kiggans’ 2nd District from Toss-up to Leans Democratic, shifted Representative Rob Wittman’s 1st District from Leans Republican to Toss-up and changed Representative John McGuire’s 5th District from Likely Republican to Leans Republican. And Democratic-sponsored surveys reviewed by Newsweek point in the same direction, showing narrow one-point Republican leads in the 1st and 5th districts, while party groups and candidates are directing money toward contests once expected to receive less national attention.
Democrats are now targeting a fourth Virginia seat, adding Republican Representative Ben Cline’s 6th District to the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee’s offensive battlefield on Friday. Democrats need only a narrow net gain to take control of the House. It comes as Virginia’s expanding data-center industry provides a local fault line within that wider Congressional battle.
Democratic candidate Tom Perriello has seized on the issue in District 5, accusing incumbent McGuire of backing corporate tax breaks available to developers and opposing a transmission line associated with the industry’s growing electricity demand. Newsweek’s AI Policy Scorecard offers a new way to examine the incumbents’ records in this emerging technological space. It ranks sitting members from AI Skeptic to AI Booster using votes and public positions across regulation, energy and data centers, employment, safety and national security.
The scorecard ranks McGuire as "Lean Booster," with a score of 3.5. Newsweek reached out to the Republican National Committee and the Democratic and Republican candidates running in Virginia’s Congressional races mentioned above for comment via email on Friday morning. Public opinion offers a reason for candidates to engage with an industry that brings investment and tax revenue while drawing concerns about energy, land, and household costs.
A Washington Post-Schar School survey conducted from March 26 to 31 among 1,101 registered Virginia voters found that just 35 percent would be comfortable with a data center being built in their community. Its margin of error was plus or minus 3.4 percentage points. National findings point to stronger resistance.
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