The Old Farmer’s Almanac and the Farmers’ Almanac both have released fall 2026 forecasts, and while the two publications agree on some parts of the country, their outlooks diverge in others. The Old Farmer’s Almanac, founded in 1792, says its long-range forecasts are based on solar science, climatology and meteorology, using historical weather patterns, solar activity, climate data and large-scale climate signals. The Farmers’ Almanac, a separate publication founded in 1818, says its forecasts are based on a proprietary formula attributed to founding editor David Young that considers factors including sunspot activity, the Moon’s tidal action, planetary positions and analogue forecasting, with forecasts calculated as much as two years in advance.
Both almanacs have long emphasized their historical forecasting methods and proprietary approaches, but meteorologists at the National Weather Service and NOAA have questioned the reliability of highly specific long-range forecasts made months in advance. Their fall outlooks sometimes align with official NOAA/NWS seasonal forecasts, especially on broad regional trends, but they also diverge in several areas, such as precipitation in the Pacific Northwest and temperature and rainfall patterns in the Southeast. As a result, the almanacs can offer an interesting comparison with NOAA/NWS guidance, but their predictions should not be considered equivalent to scientifically based seasonal forecasts.
Among the sharpest splits is the Northwest. The Old Farmer’s Almanac forecasts the Pacific Northwest will be "cooler and wetter than average," with September possibly bringing up to three inches more rain than usual. The Farmers’ Almanac also expects colder conditions in the Northwest, but its precipitation outlook goes the other way.
It lists the region as "cold and dry," putting the two forecasts at odds over whether fall will bring more rain or less. The Southeast is another point of disagreement. The Old Farmer’s Almanac says September and October are expected to average one degree below normal, with below-average rainfall across the region.
Northern areas are forecast to receive about two inches less rain than average, while southern areas could see up to four inches less. The Farmers’ Almanac describes a different season. It says the Southeast will hold on to "summerlike warmth longer than most other regions" and summarizes the regional outlook as "warm and stormy." The two almanacs are more aligned in the Northeast.
The Old Farmer’s Almanac tells readers to expect "cooler and wetter conditions than usual." The Farmers’ Almanac gives a similar outlook, listing the Northeast as "cool and wet." The Southwest is another area of broad agreement. The Old Farmer’s Almanac says the Desert Southwest will have a warmer-than-average September, followed by a slightly cooler October, with rainfall below average throughout the fall. Farmers’ Almanac also expects dry conditions in the broader West and Southwest, describing the area as "warm with below-average rainfall." Southern Texas also lines up across the two forecasts.
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