Democratic Senate nominee in Texas James Talarico holds a narrow 3-point lead over Republican Senate nominee Ken Paxton in a new poll released less than two months out from Election Day. The poll's margin of error is plus or minus 4 percentage points, so the narrow gap represents a dead heat in the key race that Democrats hope gets them over the hump in their long pursuit of capturing a statewide election in the firmly red state. The close gap comes as Paxton, the state's current attorney general, has seen Talarico gain momentum with leads in a number of polls as he has surged to become the favorite among prediction markets and political handicappers.
Democrats have a narrow path to reclaim control of the upper chamber, where Republicans currently hold a 53-47 majority, and stealing a longtime GOP seat from a state that backed President Donald Trump by more than 13 points in 2024 would be a huge gain. Democrats also must defend their current seats—including in two states Trump won in 2024—and flip four others. Midterm elections are commonly viewed as a test of the political environment facing the party in power, and the president's party historically loses seats.
Millions of dollars have already been spent on the Texas race, and both campaigns are ramping up outreach as they battle for undecided and independent voters in the final weeks of the campaign. "Democrats are running competitive Senate races in Ohio and Texas, a real indication that Republicans nationwide face significant headwinds. Being competitive and winning, though, are different concepts," Matt Klink, owner and president of Klink Campaigns, told Newsweek in a Wednesday email.
Newsweek has reached out to Paxton and Talarico for comment via email on Wednesday. Texas last elected a Democrat to the Senate in 1988 and has backed Republican presidential nominees in every election since 1980, but Democrats think 2026 offers one of their best opportunities in years to compete statewide. Trump carried Texas by 13.7 percentage points in 2024, defeating then-Vice President Kamala Harris 56 percent to around 42.5 percent.
The state has not elected a Democrat to statewide office since 1994, making it one of the nation's longest-running Republican strongholds. Democrats have repeatedly targeted the state as demographic shifts and population growth have reshaped the electorate, but they have fallen short in a series of closely watched campaigns, including Beto O'Rourke's narrow 2018 Senate loss to Ted Cruz. Describing the Senate race and Texas' political landscape, Klink added, "Talarico has real appeal to the national media and some Texas Democrats, but no Democrat has won a Texas Senate race since Lloyd Bentsen in 1988.
Bentsen wouldn't even be considered a Democrat today." Polls show Paxton, who is endorsed by Trump, and Talarico, who has served as a state representative since 2018, holding narrow leads at different points in the campaign. The matchup follows Paxton's defeat of longtime Senator John Cornyn in the Republican primary in late May. Republicans descended on Dallas last week for the party’s unprecedented midterm convention.
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