Mary Peltola has gained a clearer route through Alaska’s competitive Senate election after fellow Democrat David Leslie withdrew, leaving her as the only Democrat against three Republicans in this closely watched midterm race. Following Leslie’s exit, VoteHub, a nonpartisan political media organization delivering real-time election results, moved its forecast from “Toss Up” to “Tilt Democrat” after Peltola nearly won a majority in the August 18 primary. It cited Peltola’s polling and fundraising advantages, although other analysts remain less bullish.
Alaska’s ranked-choice system rewards broad support beyond a candidate’s first-choice base, making the composition of the final four unusually important. Voters will now choose among Peltola, Republican Senator Dan S. Sullivan Jr., and Gerald Heikes on November 3.
Newsweek reached out to Peltola and Dan S. Sullivan’s campaigns for comment via email on Tuesday morning. Alaska advances four primary candidates regardless of party and uses ranked-choice voting in the general election, eliminating the lowest finisher and redistributing ballots according to voters’ next available preferences until a candidate has a majority.
Leslie’s departure allows Peltola to run without another Democrat on the ballot, but three Republican-aligned options do not necessarily divide the conservative vote permanently because rankings can transfer between candidates. Leslie, who ran to Peltola’s left, finished fourth with 1,850 votes, 109 ahead of Heikes, but withdrew hours before the deadline. His decision moved Heikes into the November field alongside the primary’s three leading finishers.
Peltola collected 82,244 votes, an 8.14-point lead over Sullivan. Primary voters could select only one candidate, however, so that result cannot show how supporters of the two lower-polling candidates will rank the finalists. The presence of Daniel J.
Sullivan Jr., who shares a first and last name with the incumbent, adds another variable. Alaska’s ballot lists the challenger as Daniel J. Sullivan Jr. without a party affiliation, while the senator appears as Dan S.
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