In the 2007-08 NBA season, all eight Western Conference teams won at least 50 games. That will not be the case again this season. There is a pretty big falloff after the top six West teams (Spurs, Thunder, Nuggets, Timberwolves, Rockets and the Lakers), with the middle class teams looking like the Trail Blazers and Jazz.
From there, the lower-tier teams are going to face added struggles of a more competitive nightly schedule, thanks to lottery reform removing the incentive to lose for a third of the league. Factor in how tough the East is (everyone has to play those teams twice), and wins are hard to come by for everyone. It makes picking the over/under win totals an especially difficult exercise, as it is every year.
Still, we'll give it our best with the information we have available to us. Earlier this week, we put out our Eastern Conference over-under predictions. Now let's get to the West.
This is a stay-away line because the Mavericks' season could go so many different ways. They could trade Kyrie Irving and bottom out, relatively speaking, or they could keep Irving, P.J. Washington and Daniel Gafford, get Dereck Lively II back in a timely manner, and with Cooper Flagg profiling as a potential All-NBA player and a bunch of wings and size all over the floor, win north of 40 games pretty easily.
Deep down, I just don't think Irving makes sense on the team's timeline and they'll ultimately find a way to trade him. And if he goes, why not Washington, Gafford and/or Naji Marshall? I'll go under, but it'll be close.
This largely comes down to Aaron Gordon's availability. When he plays, they still kill people. When he's out, much different story.
Extract — continue reading at the source.
