President Donald Trump's Republican National Convention is coming to Texas this week as the GOP confronts an uncomfortable reality: The longtime conservative stronghold is emerging as one of the biggest battlegrounds of the 2026 midterm elections. The GOP is holding the unprecedented midterm Republican convention in Dallas on September 9 and 10. The convention is part of an effort to motivate the party's base and thwart midterm losses, as polls show many Americans have soured on the Trump administration amid growing frustration with inflation, the economy and the war in Iran.
Trump's declining national approval rating has fueled Democrats' hopes that 2026 could be the year they flip Texas as polls show tightening statewide races. Democrats have long dreamed of flipping Texas, the largest Republican-leaning state, but have consistently come up short. While Republican margins narrowed throughout the 2010s, the state again moved rightward in 2024, giving Trump a 14-point victory over then-Vice President Kamala Harris.
But that hasn't stopped Democrats from making Texas a top target in the November midterms. The Lone Star State's Senate race has become one of the most competitive and expensive of the midterms as Republican state Attorney General Ken Paxton finds himself in an increasingly close race against Democratic state Representative James Talarico. Paxton unseated Senator John Cornyn in the primary.
The race has become a pure toss-up, according to the Cook Political Report, as a flurry of recent polls give Talarico a lead. Republican Governor Greg Abbott also finds himself facing a more competitive race than expected against Democratic state Representative Gina Hinojosa, though polls and forecasters still favor the incumbent to win reelection. Brendan Steinhauser, a Texas Republican strategist, told Newsweek he believes Republicans have reason to worry about the Lone Star State.
"This year, there are signs that the Democrats are very competitive," he said. Newsweek has contacted the Paxton and Talarico campaigns for comment via email. Steinhauser said there are two major reasons Democrats may be able to make Texas competitive this year—affordability and the data center revolt happening in Texas and across the country.
The rising prices of energy and groceries are having a real "impact on people," he said. "Given what's going on in the world with the economy, with the war in Iran, and then with the sort of data center backlash happening, I think that this is definitely a competitive year for Democrats," Steinhauser said. Other Republicans have also expressed concerns about Texas in the midterms.
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