This article has been reviewed according to Science X's editorial process and policies. Editors have highlighted the following attributes while ensuring the content's credibility: The reappearance of Budapest's "Rock of Starvation" is a visible sign of a drought months in the making. IIASA researchers have traced its progression from missing rainfall and parched soils to exceptionally low flows across the Danube basin.
For most of the year, the ominously named Ínség-szikla, or "Rock of Starvation," lies hidden beneath the Danube in Budapest. But when the river falls far enough, the rock breaks the surface. Historically, the rock's appearance was a warning that low water could bring poor harvests, food shortages and hunger.
Today, it is a striking marker of how far the water level in the Danube has fallen. Using more than three decades of climate and hydrological data, IIASA researchers Peter Burek and Emilio Politti have examined just how exceptional this year's conditions have become. The story began long before the rock appeared above the water.
The drought began taking shape in spring. Across much of the Danube basin, rainfall between April and July 2026 was far below the 1990–2025 average. The region has experienced similarly dry years before, including 2003, 2007 and 2022.
What stands out in 2026 is how early the dry conditions began. June brought substantially more days above 30°C across large parts of the basin. Combined with low rainfall, the heat intensified the developing drought.
The heat is also part of a longer-term pattern: records from 1990 to 2026 show a clear warming trend across the basin. For a river system as large as the Danube, however, what happens in the atmosphere is not immediately evident in the river. The effects first work their way through the landscape.
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