President Donald Trump's approval rating has settled in the high 30s to low 40s, and the generic congressional ballot has favored Democrats by roughly 6 to 7 points for months. By the historical patterns that usually govern midterm elections, that combination should be enough to hand Democrats the House and put the Senate within reach. The party controlling the White House has lost an average of 22 House seats in a midterm going back decades, a pattern rooted less in any single policy failure than in a durable voter instinct that change is healthy.
"We’re facing typical midterm election political headwinds and some economic headwinds, because people are concerned about the economy and costs and everything else, which they should be since those are pocketbook issues. That’s what most elections are really about," told reporters Senate Majority Leader John Thune during an event Friday at Southeast Technical College in Sioux Falls, South Dakota. But three factors sitting on top of that grim polling picture could still be enough to keep Republicans in power in November: a redistricting push that reshaped the House map in the GOP's favor, a Supreme Court ruling that just handed the party's Senate campaign arm a fundraising advantage, and a Senate map so structurally tilted toward Republicans that Democrats have almost no room for error.
New congressional maps in Texas, Missouri, Indiana, Florida and other states have given Republicans a net gain of roughly 12 to 14 seats nationally this cycle, while Democrats have clawed back a handful in California. The effort is the largest mid-decade redistricting push either party has undertaken in a generation. It also changes the math for how many seats Democrats need to flip to take control of the House.
A June Supreme Court ruling adds another advantage for Republicans in the Senate. The decision struck down limits on coordinated spending between national party committees and their candidates, giving the committee with more cash on hand greater room to coordinate spending. For now, that is the National Republican Senatorial Committee.
The dynamic is different in the House, where the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee continues to outraise the National Republican Congressional Committee. Then there is the Senate math itself. Democrats need to flip four seats to win control of the chamber, and only one race, North Carolina, currently leans their way.
Everything else on the map would have to break in their favor on election night for Democrats to have a realistic path to the majority. Republican strategists who spoke with Newsweek describe those three factors as real, but not sufficient on their own to overcome the environment. "These new boundaries are not impenetrable," said Alex Patton, a Republican strategist at Ozean Media.
Extract — continue reading at the source.
