Aston Villa have completed the signing of Nicolas Jackson in a deal worth up to £65m, with Ollie Watkins looking set to join Saudi Pro League side Al-Hilal. Unai Emery's Villa are undergoing a major overhaul this summer, with key players including Morgan Rogers, Ezri Konsa, Youri Tielemans and Lucas Digne having already departed. Jackson, 25, joins a number of new additions including Johan Manzambi, Joao Gomes, Zion Suzuki and Matteo Ruggeri.
That level of squad disruption was evident on the opening weekend, when Emery's side slumped to a 4-0 defeat at Brighton. With Watkins, 30, unavailable and both Tammy Abraham and 17-year-old Brian Madjo injured, Villa started without a recognised centre-forward - Emiliano Buendia led the line. The arrival of Jackson - who overtakes Manzambi to become Villa's record signing - from Chelsea gives Emery a specialist striker to work with.
It also looks set to coincide with the end of Watkins' six-year spell at Villa, during which he scored 108 goals in 278 games and became one of the defining players of the rise under Emery. However, the stats suggest Jackson is not just a like-for-like replacement for the England international - he is a different type of number nine. On the surface, Jackson's numbers at Bayern Munich last season compare favourably with those of Watkins at Villa.
The Senegal forward scored 11 goals and provided three assists in 1,320 minutes across all competitions, averaging 1.0 goal involvements per 90 minutes. Watkins recorded 21 goals and five assists in 3,837 minutes, an average of 0.6 per 90. Jackson also generated more attacking opportunities.
He averaged 3.8 shots per 90 compared with Watkins' 2.6, and 2.2 shots on target to 1.2. His expected-goals (xG) figure was also higher, at 0.7 per 90 compared with 0.5, while he averaged 8.5 touches in the opposition box to Watkins' 5.6. That fits a pattern which predates his spell in Germany.
Among players with at least 5,000 Premier League minutes since January 2020, only Erling Haaland has registered a higher non-penalty xG figure per 90 than Jackson's 0.55. Getting into scoring positions has rarely been Jackson's main problem - it is his ability to finish chances which has attracted scrutiny. During his two Premier League seasons with Chelsea, he scored 14 goals from 18.7 xG in 2023-24 and 10 from 12.3 xG the following campaign.
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