This article has been reviewed according to Science X's editorial process and policies. Editors have highlighted the following attributes while ensuring the content's credibility: Driving across Highway 37 in the San Francisco Bay Area on the best of days already feels like driving on top of water. Buffeted on both sides by marshlands hosting egrets, herons, ducks and a handful of endangered species, the sea-level highway is a major connector linking Marin, Sonoma, Napa and Solano counties.
It is also the sinking flagship for California's vulnerability to sea level rise, according to the "Coastal Flooding Risks for California" report released this week from the University of California, Davis. Recent shoreline flooding in Southern California may be a precursor of what's facing California this winter, said report author Fraser Shilling, director of the UC Davis Road Ecology Center, at the Institute of Transportation Studies. Highway 37 and other roads and highways along California's coastline are extremely vulnerable to floods and failure during this winter's coming El Niño, the report said.
"We face the risk—though not the certainty—of catastrophic flooding in a variety of coastal towns this winter," Shilling said. "It's important to be informed of risk so you can make decisions." Other high-risk areas in the state include: The Coastal Flooding Risks report comes 10 years after the center's 2016 report, which warned of major flood risk along Highway 37 from future sea level rise. That report examined potential solutions, such as moving the highway inland, or elevating it onto a causeway—a multibillion-dollar endeavor.
Caltrans is currently conducting emergency storm preparations at multiple closure points along the highway. "Ten years ago, our report said, 'This is what we expect to start happening within the next 10 years,'" Shilling said. "The problems haven't been fixed, and some of those things are going to start happening on 37 and other coastal roadways." Earlier this month in Long Beach and Newport Beach, an El Niño–induced Kelvin wave combined with a high tide and wave action to produce an additional 2 to 3 feet (0.6 to 0.9 meters) of sea level rise.
It extensively damaged and flooded coastal properties and environments there. Shilling wondered how a similar amount of sea level rise would affect Central and Northern California's towns and highways, as El Niño is expected to deliver a historically wet winter. Shilling used the publicly available Surging Seas—Risk Zone Map, a tool created by Climate Central, to understand at what amount of sea level rise coastal California's towns and highways would flood.
High-risk areas lit up the screen in a flood of blue. At 2 feet (0.6 meters) of sea level rise, airports and lowland beaches and marshes at the Bay Bridge begin to flood. At 2 to 3 feet (0.6 to 0.9 meters), portions of San Francisco and Oakland international airports, Corte Madera, San Rafael and West Oakland start to flood, at least temporarily.
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